Understanding Polls

Maurice Ferre, former Mayor of Miami, and declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida occupied by George Lemieux, “is touting poll results that show he does almost as well as Meek when matched up against likely Republican candidates.”  The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, shows that when the individuals polled in hypothetical matchups between Governor Crist and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre, or Speaker Rubio and and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre that Ferre faired about as well as Meek, that, in the words of Ferre – that Ferre and Meek are “virtually tied.”

Crist has an image problem

Governor Crist has an image problem. No, not the whole RINO thing. And no, not that other thing. Take a look at the photo on the left. The largest image, with the smiling face on top of the American flag is taken directly from the Governor's campaign website: www.charliecrist.com. The other photos, all taken from other public sources. Notice the difference? Turns out the single main photo of Crist used on his campaign site is the inverse image of Charlie. The hair is, of course, parted on the other side - and you can see that his moles are switched.

Free Fallin'

Charlie Crist is a good boy, loves his mama. Loves Jesus and America too. And now he's free, free fallin'.

What to do now

Wow. Just seven months after unrolling his grassroots insurgency campaign, Marco Rubio has "officially" become the front runner for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rubio leads Crist 47%-44% in a poll of registered Republicans. Ok Marco, you've taken the lead. What are you going to do now?

Margins Matter

As the country is digesting the special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, eyes now are fully upon Marco Rubio. After elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and now Massachusetts, conventional wisdom suggests that a path to victory over the "Obama phenomena" has become quite clear: fiscal conservatism (downplay social conservatism), limited government, strong national defense, and anti-health care reform (or at least anti-current health care reform efforts). For Marco Rubio in the Senate race in Florida, and even House candidates in PA like Josh First, this has to be music to their ears.

Improbable and Inevitable

One went from inevitable to improbable, and the other from improbable to inevitable. There is a sense of disbelief spreading among Charlie Crist supporters, much like that spread among Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters, that that upstart – "that guy" – has come out of nowhere. Clinton supporters lamented, and now Crist supporters lament, that their candidate had paid their dues; it was to be their time.

"Assailable" Crist

Where to begin… Okay, since I last left you all – the Governor has named George LeMieux, his former Chief-of-Staff as a Senatorial placeholder. The Tea Party movement has led an impassioned grassroots effort to pushback against the President Obama led Democrats and RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) alike. The head of the RPOF, Jim Greer (who garnered significant heat for backing Governor Crist against Speaker Rubio in the primary) has resigned. And lo and behold, Marco Rubio has considerably narrowed the polling (and financial) gap between Crist and Rubio in the Republican primary. That was a significant four months.

Mel Martinez Resigns

How do you know a politician is not telling the truth? His lips are moving - or so the joke goes. Well, just a few months after claiming that he will serve the remainder of his term, Senator Mel Martinez has announced that he is stepping down. As the Constitution vests the power to fill vacancies in Congress to the Executive Authority in the State - this means that leading Senate candidate and Governor Charlie Crist gets to name a Martinez replacement. That could, but likely wont, include the Governor himself. Some potential names being brought forward are former Governor Bob Martinez (could this save money on letterhead?) :-), former Secretary of State Jim Smith, former Senator Connie Mack, former Speaker of the House Alan Bense, and former Congressman Clay Shaw.

Uh-oh...

This has shades of Katherine Harris' failed campaign for the Senate in 2006. Two of Marco Rubio's top campaign officials: his campaign manager and his top fundraising consultant - are off of the payroll. According to Adam Smith's reporting, Marco Rubio claimed that these changes are just part of the "unconventional" campaign against Republican front-runner Charlie Crist. Um, well - no. If this were an all volunteer campaign - maybe. But to go from well-paid to nothing? It's not over, but the fat lady has cleared her throat and is approaching the microphone.

Fundraising and the Cost of a Campaign

Newly released fundraising numbers show Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (R) pulling in 1.2m and 4.3m respectively in the last quarter. Republican challenger Marco Rubio pulled in $340,000.

For some state perspective, consider (according to Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times):

"This was the first fundraising period since Rubio announced his candidacy, though earlier this year he raised about $250,000 when he was still in an exploratory phase. At this point in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, Mel Martinez raised $1.7 million, then-U.S. Rep. Mark Foley raised more than $700,000, Larry Klayman raised $673,000 and Bill McCollum raised $330,000."

Live Blogging Rubio DeMint Conference Call

Former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio is holding a bloggers conference call today, building off of his endorsement by stalwart conservative Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC).

Said DeMint: "Americans are increasingly [alarmed] by the direction of our country. ... and Americans, not just Republicans, are looking for an alternative. ... It is important that we don't offer the status quo. ... Marco has convinced me that he can win the race in Florida and help set the tone for Republicans across the country."

In response to my question to Rubio about his plan to raise his name identification outside of south Florida. Paraphrased "We started early; we are still 16 months out. ... We plan to travel everywhere, go anywhere, raise enough money with voters. ... This campaign will come from the bottom up, not from the top down."

And in a follow-up: "Typical Republican campaigns are about endorsements, raising money, and going on TV. [But we are not] running a conventional campaign. That's not my kind of campaign. It's about ideas."

From "Political Wire"

According to a Taegan Goddard post over at Political Wire:

"A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist (R) crushing Marco Rubio (R) in a Republican Senate primary, 59% to 22%. ... In general election match ups, Crist runs way ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), 59% to 29%. With Rubio as the GOP Senate nominee, Rubio edges Meek, 31% to 30% with 39% undecided."

Corrine Brown

Member of Congress Corrine Brown (D-FL3) has formed an exploratory committee regarding a run for the U.S. Senate, setting up a challenge to Kendrick Meek. Brown is just slightly more liberal than Meek (although not as liberal as Meek was when he was first elected). Brown's DW/Nominate scores for the last three congresses: -0.43, -0.42, -0.42; Meek came in at .39 in those same terms. Brown has a slightly incendiary history, having called the Bush policy in Haiti "racist" and telling Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) that "you all look alike to me." She, however, is not from South Florida - something that she must believe will prove important to voters.

Endorsements

Jeb Bush Jr., son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have come out to endorse Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. Governor Crist has been endorsed by Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and now Lindsay Graham (SC).

Endorsements are more about positioning (Crist to the center and Rubio to the right) than anything meaningful, when the candidates are well-known. Dog-catcher races might be more susceptible to the power of an endorsement, but the U.S. Senate is probably a different story.

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

An early poll

Marco Rubio will have his work cut out for him - not particularly helped by having the State party apparatus endorsing Charlie Crist - if this early poll means anything. According to a poll of 300 Republican voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Sachs firm, showed Rubio with only 18 percent of the vote, with Governor Crist at more than 50 percent of the vote (undecideds at 29 percent, and the margin of error being +-6).

While certainly Rubio would prefer to have done better, most political scientists agree that early polls are predictive of very little. And some of you might remember some also ran named Obama badly trailing Hilary Rodham Clinton in the early polls. What are early polls good for? Not quite "absolutely nothing." Politicians can use these early polls as part of their fundraising mechanism, which can in turn work on name ID, which can in turn improve future polls - which can be quite predictive of winners. But there is a lot of "noise" involved in this line of causation - making these early polls not particularly important.

Blastoff

Ladies and gentlemen - we have blastoff. The Crist candidacy is official.

“Over the last several months I have spoken with many Floridians about the challenges that we face together and the issues affecting our daily lives. Our country is facing the most profound public policy questions in our lifetime – questions relating to the economy, taxes, healthcare, the environment and national security. The answers to these questions will have a lasting impact on the country we love and the nation we will leave to our children and grandchildren. As I have previously said, my decision whether to seek the office of U.S. Senator or re-election as Governor would not be made until after the important work of the Legislature was completed at which time I could reflect on how to best serve the people of this great state. Here in Florida, we’ve shown that when we put people first and work together much can be accomplished, and I intend to bring that same approach to Washington. That is why, after thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate. As Governor, each day I will continue to focus on fighting for all Floridians. And if I am given the honor of serving as their Senator, I will take that fight for the people of this state I love so dearly to the halls of Congress. Thank you and God bless the great state of Florida and the United States of America.”

T-1

And an opening salvo from the Rubio camp, notable only in that Crist has yet to announce.

3, 2, 1...

The countdown to Governor Crist's announcement of his intention to run for the Senate seat now occupied by Senator Mel Martinez is at T-2. According to both his former Chief of Staff and the head of the Republican Party, Tuesday, in Tallahassee, Governor Crist will announce his plans.

Charlie Crist ran for the U.S. Senate once before - back in 1998, as a Republican in a Democratic-Presidential midterm election - and was crushed by (incumbent) Bob Graham 62-38. Crist won just four counties, and barely cracked 25% of the vote in three Democratic strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. But Crist's political skills have come a long way since then. For a really interesting read, check out Steve Bosquet's 2006 piece here, and some speculation about how the Governor might do in the 2010 race here.

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist

Conventional wisdom holds that the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist will win the U.S. Senate race in a walk. Despite the economic turmoil of the State, Governor Crist still enjoys high state-wide polling. While to many this seems unassailable, one method for beating Charlie at this game is not to let him play. To win the Senate seat, he needs to be the nominee of his own party - and that ladies and gentlemen is where the Governor could be vulnerable. Given the Governor's vocal and visible support for President Obama's stimulous package, there may be an exploitable cleavage to the right. In fact, in the latest polling, Governor Crist's negatives were higher among Republicans than among Democrats or Independents. Enter Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House, who, in addition to being a Jeb Bush protege who can draw upon support from Jeb's network, amassed a very conservative voting record in the Florida legislature. And Rubio has now also made a nice investment among the Tea Party crowd that could provide dividends in a Republican primary. His statewide name identification is still low, but that's what his campaign would have to be about: the branding of Marco Rubio. Expect lots of exposure from Speaker Rubio regarding (1) education (Jeb's specialty and 33 of the first 100 ideas from Rubio's book: "100 Innovative Ideas For Florida's Future: A Plan of Action"), (2) the economy (especially taxes, and spending), and (3) Cuba policy.