No Mack

Connie Mack has announced, via a letter to Charlie Crist, that he will not seek the U.S. Senate seat held by Senator Martinez. Further, Mack's letter to Crist proclaimed: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion - regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate." The liklihood of a Crist run seems to be increasing with time. The state legislative session ends in the next few weeks, and Crist is widely expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans in May.

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.

Mack on Hold?

Connie Mack IV (R), a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, appears to be hedging on his Senate run - at least outwardly proclaiming that he would defer to a Charlie Crist run for the Senate. Mack is an attractive candidate for the Senate for many reasons: solid conservative credentials with a few well-known moderate stances, political experience, high name ID (largely owed to his family), and decent fundraising ability. He is dutifully waiting on the leader of the party in the State, and did the same for Jeb. While this many not strike the general public as the strongest qualities of a leader - this kind of deference goes a long way toward appeasing the party faithful (generally a prerequisite for a primary run).

Rumors, rumors, rumors

On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.