Good for South Florida!

Looks like Attorney General Bill McCollum and Congressman Allen Boyd have both decided against running for the Senate. That leaves all three major candidates for the Democratic nomination from South Florida, and also knocks off a Republican non-south Floridian. Though there some indications that there could be a Democratic woman from central Florida considering a run.

This could also mean that the Republican field is being cleared for Charlie Crist. Although I think this to be unlikely, the logic goes something like: get out of Florida with still high numbers (the looming budget mess could act like an albatross on the Governor's high approval ratings), position himself for a 2016 White House run (staying as governor runs his term until 2014, leaving him paying his own dime for trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), and DC might be a more attractive town for a newly married man than Tallahassee.

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.