Ladies and Gentlemen, Senator Rubio

There is a steady narrative pumping out of the center and from some disaffected Democratic corners out there right now. That story suggests Kendrick Meek should quit the race and throw his support to Charlie Crist. The logic suggests that even with Rubio pulling 44% of the vote (in the latest Quinnipiac poll), that if one combined the percentages for Crist (30%) and Meek (22%) – that Crist could take that support and defeat Marco Rubio. Crist has picked off a couple of endorsements of some high(ish) profile Palm Beach County Democrats (former Congressman Robert Wexler and long-time County Commissioner Burt Aaronson)* – and several folks are echoing the “Kendrick can’t win” mantra.

The idea that Kendrick can’t win is right. He’s done. The problem is Charlie probably can’t either. He’s almost done. And the reason is that the ballots are done, votes have been cast, and not enough voters enter the voting poll knowing who is “in” and who is “out.” Further, some of Meek’s supporters would simply never ever vote for Charlie Crist – even if he announced that he will caucus with the Democrats (this announcement could be Charlie’s last ditch effort and will likely come sometime next week). Those committed Meek voters may stay home or vote for a different independent (NPA) candidate. Even with Kendrick “dropping out of the race” (or Crist for that matter) – those candidates will still pull a lot of votes, and would likely prevent the other from winning. One cannot simply add together the support for Crist and Meek and suggest that one of them would still topple Rubio.

The Tea Party candidates have had some remarkable successes this year – but those successes can mostly also be explained by an anti-incumbency wave. Since right now both Meek and Crist are elected officials – and Rubio is not, that trend likely means that Rubio will win the Senate race.

*Also, for what it’s worth, I would not mistake the Wexler and Aaronson endorsements as having anything to do with religion and/or race as some may think. Wexler worked quite closely with Crist on the paper-ballot movement a few years back, and Aaronson has been loudly complaining to anyone who would listen (including me at an event where I was speaking) that Meek had not spent enough time in Palm Beach County.

Incumbency and the Three Way Race

Incumbents have huge advantages over challengers in American elections – both owing to the factors why voters select particular candidates (name ID) and how campaigns work (position taking, credit claiming). While Governor Crist is not an incumbent in the race for the US Senate seat in Florida – his position as Governor gives him many of those same advantages. In recent weeks Crist has been capitalizing upon his position (and the free media attention) in attempts to secure the Senate seat. From his high profile veto of the Teacher Merit bill to the signing of the Condo Bill to what will, almost certainly, be his veto of the Abortion Ultrasound bill.

While all of this looks good for Charlie, the particulars of the three-way race also make this a difficult road. In the last twenty four hours Crist has been attacked by Rubio (pro-life) and by Meek (pro-choice) over the abortion bill. To Rubio and his followers, Crist is another opportunist turn-coat who does not really value the sanctity of life. To Meek, Crist is an opportunist who has long turned his back on women seeking an abortion. Well, at least Rubio and Meek can agree on something, if just partially.

Good news, bad news, and the Solomonic compromise

The good news greeting Charlie Crist is another poll showing him slightly ahead of Marco Rubio and significantly in front of Kendrick Meek in the Senate race. Of the three post-independent announcement three-way polls, Crist has been ahead in two and Rubio has been ahead in the other. The bad news for Crist is that his gamble to go in front of the AFL-CIO and publicly ask for their endorsement failed. The AFL-CIO is endorsing Meek. Some sting might come off as the teacher's union "split" their endorsement between Meek and Crist. What does that mean? Well getting an endorsement is useful for fundraising and organized efforts at getting out the vote. Crist may well capture some AFL-CIO union members votes - regardless of the endorsement, but he can now "spin" the teacher's union split endorsement (as can Meek) in his fundraising pleas and can try to use the organization for GOTV efforts.

Dems for Crist and the Killing Fields

Big weekend: The Miami Herald runs a story about Kendrick Meek, his mother (also a former Member of Congress), an aide, and a developer that could smell trouble. Some Palm Beach County Democrats are getting on the Crist train. And a new poll shows Rubio regaining his lead in the three way Senate race, after the Crist independent announcement momentum evaporated.

The takeaway: the Meek issues in Palm Beach are largely related to his lack of campaigning in the County, which led to several bruised egos among some of the County political players. People want to feel important – even if they are not. The Greene candidacy isn’t entirely unrelated to either Meek’s lack of progress in Palm Beach and to the possibility of a Meek scandal – but isn’t really catching on among Democrats who think Crist is a better deal than losing to Rubio. Crist’s real hope at this point is to start peeling away the Democratic voters in South Florida (what Republicans have long referred to as “the killing fields” – as Democrats have typically been able to put up gaudy numbers in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

I am on record that I think Crist maxes out around 40% of the vote, but I think he will probably be closer to 30% by the time it’s all over – as long as Meek stays in the race. That seemed fairly certain just a few weeks ago, and while still the most likely scenario – it is no longer a sure thing.

Is Meek not handsome enough?

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One cleared primary, one contested primary

Just as the Governor moved out of the Republican primary, setting up a chic three-way Senate race, political newcomer and real estate billionaire Jeff Greene looks to be entering the Democratic primary. He is being advised by Joe Trippi (former advisor to Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, and Howard Dean - all four guys who were never elected President) and pollster Doug Schoen (who polled for both President and Hillary Clinton).


Greene made his most recent oodles of money (and he had plenty before) betting against the sub-prime mortgage market (particularly the two-year ARMs in California and Nevada), and has surrounded himself with the Hollywood weird (Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss, and Mike Tyson all get a mention in this Forbes magazine interview).


Expect significant push-back from the Democratic Party. Meek has not been overwhelming, but he has been operating within the Crist-Rubio soap-opera for the last year and party folks had been waiting for the end of that saga to start making headway in the electorate. This guy can't seem to catch a break.


Welcome to Florida folks: hanging chads, Bush v. Gore, Mark Foley, Tim Mahoney, Charlie Crist, and now Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss and Mike Tyson. Truly amazing.

Populism and a Broadside Attack on Parties

As expected, Governor Crist announced on Thursday that he will continue his race for the U.S. Senate by switching to "no party affiliation." You can watch his constant uttering of "people, people, people" and see his broadside attack on political parties below.

As both partisanship in Congress increases, and voter identification with political parties wanes - Crist's line of attack here makes some sense. Political scientists tend to discuss political parties, much like the media and other interest groups, in that each are links between government and the electorate. They can mobilize the citizenry to establish policy preferences, and serve to communicate between the government and electorate. They are also quite useful for to recruit candidates and support compliant representatives (we think of this as "mobilization"). In this capacity they serve both an organizational component, and a financial one. And parties are quite useful in crafting messages and helping to establish an agenda (we think of this as "communication").

Parties today, however, have become somewhat less important (although not really "not important"). Overall, the communication role can also be filled by television, and the mobilization role can be filled by interest groups. The questions for Governor Crist - can he use his cash on hand and fundraising skill to use television effectively? And will the teachers and the Seminole Tribe be effective at mobilization? Filling his staff with skilled professionals and continuing his fundraising are questionable.

Countdown 2-1...

Governor Crist will announce on Thursday, April 29, his intentions regarding his participation in the 2010 Senate race. If he runs, as now widely expected (and what will likely fail) as an independent, expect to hear a mixture of post-partisan and populism: "I didn't leave the party. The party left me." and "I represent the people." You can take the quintessential cliched man out of the Republican Party, but you can't take the quintessential cliches out of Charlie.

Charlie's Choice

As the April 30 “no party affiliation” deadline approaches, according to most observers, Governor Crist faces three choices:

(1)    soldier on in the primary against Rubio

(2)    gracefully withdraw from this race, and set his sights on a Bill - either:

a.       McCollum for Governor

b.      Nelson for Senator in 2012

(3)    attempt to run for the Senate seat with no party affiliation

These are all poor choices for Charlie; at this point he must only be thinking about “satisficing” rather than “optimizing.”

Should the Governor continue to run against Rubio in the Republican primary, the trajectory is not kind to Charlie. Not only has Rubio been pulling way in front in the polls, but he’s been a fundraising phenomenon and has expanded his endorsement base from the quixotic ideologues to the very real mainstream of the Republican Party. Absent a complete Rubio meltdown (e.g., criminal charges, sex scandal), this is no path the US Senate for the Governor. And I mean “complete” meltdown – my read on the ethics issue, is that this is really no issue at all. It is just not resonating with the voters. Sorry Charlie.

Another idea for the Governor would be to withdraw from the Republican primary against Rubio and enter a different race – but still as a Republican. The Governor could simply train his sights on Senator Nelson for the 2012 race, and barely have to change a word of his campaign literature. Or the Governor could try to keep the office he has – running in what would likely be a contested primary against the current Attorney General Bill McCollum. McCollum has been underwhelming so far; he remains an engaging public speaker and accomplished politician – but with very little of the shiny patina one expects of Florida’s statewide leader. But the Governor’s veto of SB6 (the education merit/reform bill) was a stick in the eye of Jeb Bush and the Republican Party, and was, effectively, Charlie Crist’s Republican resignation letter. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party would get behind a Crist candidacy for dog catcher at this point.

The last, and most “chic” of his choices would be to run as an independent (technically, “no party affiliation”) in Florida and turn the Senate race into a three-way race. Crist would probably feel bolstered the Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead in that race – but these early polls need to be taken with some caution. First, that current snapshot is devoid of the actual campaign (i.e., how will both Meek and Rubio attack Crist? – both of whom will want to hold onto their voters). Second, how would Crist raise money? (he has raised more than 7 million dollars, but his cash-on-hand is around 2.5 million, which could buy about 2.5 weeks of statewide ad-buys) and how would he put together a staff? (the Republican Party would likely pressure the “bench” – the lower level Town Council members, County Commissioners and such who typically make-up the county-wide election committees, with retribution for helping Charlie). Additionally, with both real established candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, the path for a Crist victory is exceptionally unlikely.

Given these options, if I were Charlie – I would think about leading a university, an energy company, a hedge-fund or some other non-elected office. Time to think outside of the box.

Image problem resolved?

As I noted a while back, the image of Charlie Crist on his website (http://charliecrist.com) showed the reverse image - with Crist's part of his hair on his left side, instead of his usual right. Well, someone at the Crist campaign might be reading this blog - as that issue has now been resolved. Now we all get to see the "right" Charlie.

Charlie in a Three-Way?

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters shows Rubio increasing his lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (now by 23 points), and also shows Rubio ahead of Meek in a two-person general election showdown (by just 4 points). Quinnipiac also polled a three-way race with Crist as an independent against Rubio and Meek and shows Crist actually winning that race (by 2 points).

Crist has vehemently denied that would run as an independent several times – yet today vetoed a major education reform bill that had been championed by Jeb Bush. His veto certainly won no favors among the Republicans – but Crist had already made himself persona non-grata among a growing share of Republicans. In the last several weeks there has been a huge public outcry in Florida among teachers and parents urging the Republican controlled legislature to stop the bill’s passage – and once those efforts failed, to Governor Crist to veto this bill.

The easiest historical corollary for Governor Crist would be look to the Connecticut race for the US Senate in 2006. That year, Ned Lamont (and a push from the extreme of the party) defeated Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But Lieberman then ran as an independent in the general election and defeated the Democratic nominee Lamont and the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in that three-way race.

So if Joe could do it, can Charlie?

And the winner is...

Kendrick Meek. The first debate between Governor Crist and Speaker Rubio had been much anticipated, but probably resulted in an unlikely winner: the Democratic nominee (likely Meek). Certainly today both Crist and Rubio will declare that each "won" the debate (and for what it's worth, some of the national press and the local folks here and here believe, as I do, that Rubio performed better). But what is winning? The real winner is the person who receives more votes because of the debate. That "because of" is a pretty difficult standard - largely because there are so many other causal factors at work in voting for a candidate that putting much on a debate is difficult. What can usually be gained from a debate is building Name ID throughout the electorate. It's probably a stretch to think that Governor Crist could really increase his Name ID. His problem is that voters know him, and don't particularly like him. Rubio, despite his budding nationwide reputation (all sorts of "hail the new future of the Republican Party" ideas surrounding Rubio), could stand to gain on Name ID in Florida. But the problem is that Rubio is already winning, and whether he receives 50.1% of the vote or, more likely, puts up some gaudy numbers against Crist, he still wins. And once he wins, he has to face the Democratic nominee - who is likely Kendrick Meek. Yet Rubio often served as a punching bag yesterday for Crist during the debate, undergoing a near constant personal assault. Crist not only tried to tar Rubio with facts (use of a RPOF credit card for personal expenses that were reimbursed and some double billing on airline tickets) - but Crist recklessly put out speculative charges that he (Crist) kept saying that even he (Crist) did not know if they were true (related to tax returns). Who can benefit here? Meek. Meek can follow the fruitful trails led by the Governor and try to avoid Crist's pitfalls.

Going Negative

Marco’s from Miami. Charlie hugged Barack. Kendrick hasn’t returned Rangel’s money. Just the latest volleys in what might seem like the season of negative campaigning in the Race for Senate. Yet what should be noted is that (1) negative information about policies, as opposed to personhood, can provide valuable information to voters, and (2) negative campaigning can actually increase voter turnout.

What Rubio’s Senate tenure might look like probably has nothing to do with being from Miami. That cynical and ugly tactic from the Crist camp is the classic smear. See Rubio is slick, because he’s from Miami – like that Scarface character. The Governor’s embrace of the President, while similar, in that it tries to create an association – actually has a policy basis. See Crist will embrace Obama’s policies, because he’s actually embraced Obama. The Ferre accusation leveled at Meek is a little bit more mixed. Ferre is clearly trying to smear Meek by tying him to the tax evasion issues surrounding Rangel – but this is actually an ongoing issue for politicians (what is to be done with “tainted” money?) and one that has spurred other elected representatives to get rid of Rangel money.

When political scientists have investigated the effects of negative campaigning, it turns out to be a double-edged sword. Some amounts of negative campaigning actually increase voter turnout, as partisans, in particular, tend to salivate at the red meat spectacle. But as the amount of negative campaigning keeps expanding, turnout can start to get depressed as independents, in particular, tend to avert their eyes (and votes) when the mud really gets slung. That’s why in a primary, especially a closed primary state like Florida, it makes all sorts of sense to go negative during a primary as primary voters tend to be quite partisan. But in a general election the vitriolic and bombastic tone should really only be used if one wants to dampen turnout (i.e., a more extreme candidate looking to turnout the base).

How Conservative is Marco Rubio?

On television this morning on Morning Joe, Governor Charlie Crist appeared to suggest that Speaker Rubio was not really all that conservative - when looking at his record in power. As someone who has looked at Rubio's record in power, Crist will have a tough time making that case.

A reporter recently asked me whether (paraphrasing) “given Florida’s history of electing moderate Senators, what are the chances for someone like Marco Rubio?” As I’ve detailed earlier, political scientists have long evaluated political ideology in terms of numbers – most commonly scaling liberals to moderates to conservatives from -1 to 0 to +1. US Senators from Florida are fairly moderate, overall, but as of late appear to be becoming slightly more extreme. From the 80^th Congress through the 100^th Congress, the average (absolute value) of ideology of the Florida Senators was .141, but from the 101^st through the 111^th Congress, the ideology of the Florida Senators was .340. This difference is partially attributable to the replacement of Lawton Chiles by Connie Mack, and then Bill Nelson’s subsequent replacement of Connie Mack.

Yet what should be noted is that Marco Rubio’s DW-Nominate score places him at at about .700. That certainly places Rubio well to the extreme of any prior recent Florida Senator, and about as extreme as one of Florida’s first senators: Samuel Pasco (D).

How does Rubio compare to the current US Senate? At .700, only three US Senators score as conservative: INHOFE (OK), DEMINT (SC), and COBURN (OK). In the House, there are about 57 House Members who rate more conservative than does Rubio, including the recent winner of the CPAC Straw Poll, Ron Paul (TX) who achieved a DW-Nominate score of 1.348.

I have not yet figured out a way to assess Governor Crist's record on a similar scale, but Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has compiled a list of the Governor's positions that tends to demonstrate a much, much, more moderate record than Speaker Rubio's record. Silver compares Crist's stances to that of Senators Snowe and Collins - the two most liberal Republican Senators in Congress (.045 and .068).

To Debate or Not to Debate

Marco Rubio has announced that he has accepted an offer from Fox News to debate Charlie Crist. The Governor has yet to answer. Since the Governor is down in the polls, one might think he would be eager to have the chance to debate Rubio. Yet what should be noted is that a nationally televised debate in this political climate is rife with problems. The debate would likely only serve to raise the profile for Rubio; despite his leading poll numbers - he probably still has room to grow. What would Crist gain by saying yes? Well he could, perhaps, (1) beat Rubio on the issues, or (2) hope for a debacle (say, like, ink written notes on the hand after chastising the leader of the other party for using a teleprompter).

UPDATE: Governor Crist has accepted an offer for two national debates: March 7th on Meet the Press, and March 28 on Fox News Sunday.

Crist has an image problem

Governor Crist has an image problem. No, not the whole RINO thing. And no, not that other thing. Take a look at the photo on the left. The largest image, with the smiling face on top of the American flag is taken directly from the Governor's campaign website: www.charliecrist.com. The other photos, all taken from other public sources. Notice the difference? Turns out the single main photo of Crist used on his campaign site is the inverse image of Charlie. The hair is, of course, parted on the other side - and you can see that his moles are switched.

Free Fallin'

Charlie Crist is a good boy, loves his mama. Loves Jesus and America too. And now he's free, free fallin'.

What to do now

Wow. Just seven months after unrolling his grassroots insurgency campaign, Marco Rubio has "officially" become the front runner for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rubio leads Crist 47%-44% in a poll of registered Republicans. Ok Marco, you've taken the lead. What are you going to do now?

Improbable and Inevitable

One went from inevitable to improbable, and the other from improbable to inevitable. There is a sense of disbelief spreading among Charlie Crist supporters, much like that spread among Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters, that that upstart – "that guy" – has come out of nowhere. Clinton supporters lamented, and now Crist supporters lament, that their candidate had paid their dues; it was to be their time.

"Assailable" Crist

Where to begin… Okay, since I last left you all – the Governor has named George LeMieux, his former Chief-of-Staff as a Senatorial placeholder. The Tea Party movement has led an impassioned grassroots effort to pushback against the President Obama led Democrats and RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) alike. The head of the RPOF, Jim Greer (who garnered significant heat for backing Governor Crist against Speaker Rubio in the primary) has resigned. And lo and behold, Marco Rubio has considerably narrowed the polling (and financial) gap between Crist and Rubio in the Republican primary. That was a significant four months.