Ladies and Gentlemen, Senator Rubio

There is a steady narrative pumping out of the center and from some disaffected Democratic corners out there right now. That story suggests Kendrick Meek should quit the race and throw his support to Charlie Crist. The logic suggests that even with Rubio pulling 44% of the vote (in the latest Quinnipiac poll), that if one combined the percentages for Crist (30%) and Meek (22%) – that Crist could take that support and defeat Marco Rubio. Crist has picked off a couple of endorsements of some high(ish) profile Palm Beach County Democrats (former Congressman Robert Wexler and long-time County Commissioner Burt Aaronson)* – and several folks are echoing the “Kendrick can’t win” mantra.

The idea that Kendrick can’t win is right. He’s done. The problem is Charlie probably can’t either. He’s almost done. And the reason is that the ballots are done, votes have been cast, and not enough voters enter the voting poll knowing who is “in” and who is “out.” Further, some of Meek’s supporters would simply never ever vote for Charlie Crist – even if he announced that he will caucus with the Democrats (this announcement could be Charlie’s last ditch effort and will likely come sometime next week). Those committed Meek voters may stay home or vote for a different independent (NPA) candidate. Even with Kendrick “dropping out of the race” (or Crist for that matter) – those candidates will still pull a lot of votes, and would likely prevent the other from winning. One cannot simply add together the support for Crist and Meek and suggest that one of them would still topple Rubio.

The Tea Party candidates have had some remarkable successes this year – but those successes can mostly also be explained by an anti-incumbency wave. Since right now both Meek and Crist are elected officials – and Rubio is not, that trend likely means that Rubio will win the Senate race.

*Also, for what it’s worth, I would not mistake the Wexler and Aaronson endorsements as having anything to do with religion and/or race as some may think. Wexler worked quite closely with Crist on the paper-ballot movement a few years back, and Aaronson has been loudly complaining to anyone who would listen (including me at an event where I was speaking) that Meek had not spent enough time in Palm Beach County.

Incumbency and the Three Way Race

Incumbents have huge advantages over challengers in American elections – both owing to the factors why voters select particular candidates (name ID) and how campaigns work (position taking, credit claiming). While Governor Crist is not an incumbent in the race for the US Senate seat in Florida – his position as Governor gives him many of those same advantages. In recent weeks Crist has been capitalizing upon his position (and the free media attention) in attempts to secure the Senate seat. From his high profile veto of the Teacher Merit bill to the signing of the Condo Bill to what will, almost certainly, be his veto of the Abortion Ultrasound bill.

While all of this looks good for Charlie, the particulars of the three-way race also make this a difficult road. In the last twenty four hours Crist has been attacked by Rubio (pro-life) and by Meek (pro-choice) over the abortion bill. To Rubio and his followers, Crist is another opportunist turn-coat who does not really value the sanctity of life. To Meek, Crist is an opportunist who has long turned his back on women seeking an abortion. Well, at least Rubio and Meek can agree on something, if just partially.

Good news, bad news, and the Solomonic compromise

The good news greeting Charlie Crist is another poll showing him slightly ahead of Marco Rubio and significantly in front of Kendrick Meek in the Senate race. Of the three post-independent announcement three-way polls, Crist has been ahead in two and Rubio has been ahead in the other. The bad news for Crist is that his gamble to go in front of the AFL-CIO and publicly ask for their endorsement failed. The AFL-CIO is endorsing Meek. Some sting might come off as the teacher's union "split" their endorsement between Meek and Crist. What does that mean? Well getting an endorsement is useful for fundraising and organized efforts at getting out the vote. Crist may well capture some AFL-CIO union members votes - regardless of the endorsement, but he can now "spin" the teacher's union split endorsement (as can Meek) in his fundraising pleas and can try to use the organization for GOTV efforts.

Dems for Crist and the Killing Fields

Big weekend: The Miami Herald runs a story about Kendrick Meek, his mother (also a former Member of Congress), an aide, and a developer that could smell trouble. Some Palm Beach County Democrats are getting on the Crist train. And a new poll shows Rubio regaining his lead in the three way Senate race, after the Crist independent announcement momentum evaporated.

The takeaway: the Meek issues in Palm Beach are largely related to his lack of campaigning in the County, which led to several bruised egos among some of the County political players. People want to feel important – even if they are not. The Greene candidacy isn’t entirely unrelated to either Meek’s lack of progress in Palm Beach and to the possibility of a Meek scandal – but isn’t really catching on among Democrats who think Crist is a better deal than losing to Rubio. Crist’s real hope at this point is to start peeling away the Democratic voters in South Florida (what Republicans have long referred to as “the killing fields” – as Democrats have typically been able to put up gaudy numbers in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

I am on record that I think Crist maxes out around 40% of the vote, but I think he will probably be closer to 30% by the time it’s all over – as long as Meek stays in the race. That seemed fairly certain just a few weeks ago, and while still the most likely scenario – it is no longer a sure thing.

One cleared primary, one contested primary

Just as the Governor moved out of the Republican primary, setting up a chic three-way Senate race, political newcomer and real estate billionaire Jeff Greene looks to be entering the Democratic primary. He is being advised by Joe Trippi (former advisor to Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, and Howard Dean - all four guys who were never elected President) and pollster Doug Schoen (who polled for both President and Hillary Clinton).


Greene made his most recent oodles of money (and he had plenty before) betting against the sub-prime mortgage market (particularly the two-year ARMs in California and Nevada), and has surrounded himself with the Hollywood weird (Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss, and Mike Tyson all get a mention in this Forbes magazine interview).


Expect significant push-back from the Democratic Party. Meek has not been overwhelming, but he has been operating within the Crist-Rubio soap-opera for the last year and party folks had been waiting for the end of that saga to start making headway in the electorate. This guy can't seem to catch a break.


Welcome to Florida folks: hanging chads, Bush v. Gore, Mark Foley, Tim Mahoney, Charlie Crist, and now Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss and Mike Tyson. Truly amazing.

Charlie's Choice

As the April 30 “no party affiliation” deadline approaches, according to most observers, Governor Crist faces three choices:

(1)    soldier on in the primary against Rubio

(2)    gracefully withdraw from this race, and set his sights on a Bill - either:

a.       McCollum for Governor

b.      Nelson for Senator in 2012

(3)    attempt to run for the Senate seat with no party affiliation

These are all poor choices for Charlie; at this point he must only be thinking about “satisficing” rather than “optimizing.”

Should the Governor continue to run against Rubio in the Republican primary, the trajectory is not kind to Charlie. Not only has Rubio been pulling way in front in the polls, but he’s been a fundraising phenomenon and has expanded his endorsement base from the quixotic ideologues to the very real mainstream of the Republican Party. Absent a complete Rubio meltdown (e.g., criminal charges, sex scandal), this is no path the US Senate for the Governor. And I mean “complete” meltdown – my read on the ethics issue, is that this is really no issue at all. It is just not resonating with the voters. Sorry Charlie.

Another idea for the Governor would be to withdraw from the Republican primary against Rubio and enter a different race – but still as a Republican. The Governor could simply train his sights on Senator Nelson for the 2012 race, and barely have to change a word of his campaign literature. Or the Governor could try to keep the office he has – running in what would likely be a contested primary against the current Attorney General Bill McCollum. McCollum has been underwhelming so far; he remains an engaging public speaker and accomplished politician – but with very little of the shiny patina one expects of Florida’s statewide leader. But the Governor’s veto of SB6 (the education merit/reform bill) was a stick in the eye of Jeb Bush and the Republican Party, and was, effectively, Charlie Crist’s Republican resignation letter. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party would get behind a Crist candidacy for dog catcher at this point.

The last, and most “chic” of his choices would be to run as an independent (technically, “no party affiliation”) in Florida and turn the Senate race into a three-way race. Crist would probably feel bolstered the Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead in that race – but these early polls need to be taken with some caution. First, that current snapshot is devoid of the actual campaign (i.e., how will both Meek and Rubio attack Crist? – both of whom will want to hold onto their voters). Second, how would Crist raise money? (he has raised more than 7 million dollars, but his cash-on-hand is around 2.5 million, which could buy about 2.5 weeks of statewide ad-buys) and how would he put together a staff? (the Republican Party would likely pressure the “bench” – the lower level Town Council members, County Commissioners and such who typically make-up the county-wide election committees, with retribution for helping Charlie). Additionally, with both real established candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, the path for a Crist victory is exceptionally unlikely.

Given these options, if I were Charlie – I would think about leading a university, an energy company, a hedge-fund or some other non-elected office. Time to think outside of the box.

Charlie in a Three-Way?

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters shows Rubio increasing his lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (now by 23 points), and also shows Rubio ahead of Meek in a two-person general election showdown (by just 4 points). Quinnipiac also polled a three-way race with Crist as an independent against Rubio and Meek and shows Crist actually winning that race (by 2 points).

Crist has vehemently denied that would run as an independent several times – yet today vetoed a major education reform bill that had been championed by Jeb Bush. His veto certainly won no favors among the Republicans – but Crist had already made himself persona non-grata among a growing share of Republicans. In the last several weeks there has been a huge public outcry in Florida among teachers and parents urging the Republican controlled legislature to stop the bill’s passage – and once those efforts failed, to Governor Crist to veto this bill.

The easiest historical corollary for Governor Crist would be look to the Connecticut race for the US Senate in 2006. That year, Ned Lamont (and a push from the extreme of the party) defeated Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But Lieberman then ran as an independent in the general election and defeated the Democratic nominee Lamont and the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in that three-way race.

So if Joe could do it, can Charlie?

And the winner is...

Kendrick Meek. The first debate between Governor Crist and Speaker Rubio had been much anticipated, but probably resulted in an unlikely winner: the Democratic nominee (likely Meek). Certainly today both Crist and Rubio will declare that each "won" the debate (and for what it's worth, some of the national press and the local folks here and here believe, as I do, that Rubio performed better). But what is winning? The real winner is the person who receives more votes because of the debate. That "because of" is a pretty difficult standard - largely because there are so many other causal factors at work in voting for a candidate that putting much on a debate is difficult. What can usually be gained from a debate is building Name ID throughout the electorate. It's probably a stretch to think that Governor Crist could really increase his Name ID. His problem is that voters know him, and don't particularly like him. Rubio, despite his budding nationwide reputation (all sorts of "hail the new future of the Republican Party" ideas surrounding Rubio), could stand to gain on Name ID in Florida. But the problem is that Rubio is already winning, and whether he receives 50.1% of the vote or, more likely, puts up some gaudy numbers against Crist, he still wins. And once he wins, he has to face the Democratic nominee - who is likely Kendrick Meek. Yet Rubio often served as a punching bag yesterday for Crist during the debate, undergoing a near constant personal assault. Crist not only tried to tar Rubio with facts (use of a RPOF credit card for personal expenses that were reimbursed and some double billing on airline tickets) - but Crist recklessly put out speculative charges that he (Crist) kept saying that even he (Crist) did not know if they were true (related to tax returns). Who can benefit here? Meek. Meek can follow the fruitful trails led by the Governor and try to avoid Crist's pitfalls.

Going Negative

Marco’s from Miami. Charlie hugged Barack. Kendrick hasn’t returned Rangel’s money. Just the latest volleys in what might seem like the season of negative campaigning in the Race for Senate. Yet what should be noted is that (1) negative information about policies, as opposed to personhood, can provide valuable information to voters, and (2) negative campaigning can actually increase voter turnout.

What Rubio’s Senate tenure might look like probably has nothing to do with being from Miami. That cynical and ugly tactic from the Crist camp is the classic smear. See Rubio is slick, because he’s from Miami – like that Scarface character. The Governor’s embrace of the President, while similar, in that it tries to create an association – actually has a policy basis. See Crist will embrace Obama’s policies, because he’s actually embraced Obama. The Ferre accusation leveled at Meek is a little bit more mixed. Ferre is clearly trying to smear Meek by tying him to the tax evasion issues surrounding Rangel – but this is actually an ongoing issue for politicians (what is to be done with “tainted” money?) and one that has spurred other elected representatives to get rid of Rangel money.

When political scientists have investigated the effects of negative campaigning, it turns out to be a double-edged sword. Some amounts of negative campaigning actually increase voter turnout, as partisans, in particular, tend to salivate at the red meat spectacle. But as the amount of negative campaigning keeps expanding, turnout can start to get depressed as independents, in particular, tend to avert their eyes (and votes) when the mud really gets slung. That’s why in a primary, especially a closed primary state like Florida, it makes all sorts of sense to go negative during a primary as primary voters tend to be quite partisan. But in a general election the vitriolic and bombastic tone should really only be used if one wants to dampen turnout (i.e., a more extreme candidate looking to turnout the base).

First in for NASCAR... Kendrick Meek

*via the Sun-Sentinel Broward politics blog*

Senate candidate Meek courts NASCAR fans

> Posted by Anthony Man on February 8, 2010 05:10 PM

Kendrick Meek, the South Florida Democrat running for U.S. Senate is going after a vital constituency in a statewide race – north Florida conservatives – by sponsoring a car at Saturday’s NASCAR race in Daytona Beach.

Fans in the stands and watching ESPN2 cable coverage of the event will see Mike Wallace’s #01 race car emblazoned with the “Kendrick Meek for U.S Senate” logo. They’ll also get a pitch on the back of the car to sign up for Meek campaign updates via text message.

And this isn’t just any race. Driver Danica Patrick, the first woman to win an Indy Car race, will make her NASCAR Nationwide Series debut at the race at Daytona International Speedway – virtually guaranteeing high viewership.

Martin J. Sweet, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University’s Honors College, said it’s a savvy attempt to bolster the Meek brand with voters who might ordinarily be more inclined toward Republican Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio.

“Neither Rubio nor Crist particularly ooze that real ‘Bubba’ factor, so Meek can gamble a bit here,” Sweet said. “While in years past the NASCAR crowd might not have been fertile ground for Democrats, the sport’s rapid expansion in popularity coupled with no obvious Republican candidate connection makes the Meek strategy here pretty smart.”

Understanding Polls

Maurice Ferre, former Mayor of Miami, and declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida occupied by George Lemieux, “is touting poll results that show he does almost as well as Meek when matched up against likely Republican candidates.”  The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, shows that when the individuals polled in hypothetical matchups between Governor Crist and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre, or Speaker Rubio and and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre that Ferre faired about as well as Meek, that, in the words of Ferre – that Ferre and Meek are “virtually tied.”

Fundraising and the Cost of a Campaign

Newly released fundraising numbers show Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (R) pulling in 1.2m and 4.3m respectively in the last quarter. Republican challenger Marco Rubio pulled in $340,000.

For some state perspective, consider (according to Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times):

"This was the first fundraising period since Rubio announced his candidacy, though earlier this year he raised about $250,000 when he was still in an exploratory phase. At this point in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, Mel Martinez raised $1.7 million, then-U.S. Rep. Mark Foley raised more than $700,000, Larry Klayman raised $673,000 and Bill McCollum raised $330,000."

From "Political Wire"

According to a Taegan Goddard post over at Political Wire:

"A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist (R) crushing Marco Rubio (R) in a Republican Senate primary, 59% to 22%. ... In general election match ups, Crist runs way ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), 59% to 29%. With Rubio as the GOP Senate nominee, Rubio edges Meek, 31% to 30% with 39% undecided."

Corrine Brown

Member of Congress Corrine Brown (D-FL3) has formed an exploratory committee regarding a run for the U.S. Senate, setting up a challenge to Kendrick Meek. Brown is just slightly more liberal than Meek (although not as liberal as Meek was when he was first elected). Brown's DW/Nominate scores for the last three congresses: -0.43, -0.42, -0.42; Meek came in at .39 in those same terms. Brown has a slightly incendiary history, having called the Bush policy in Haiti "racist" and telling Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) that "you all look alike to me." She, however, is not from South Florida - something that she must believe will prove important to voters.

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.

First in the water

While names have been dropping off the radar screen (Jeb Bush, Alex Sink, Joe Scarborough), the first serious candidate (one with significant electoral experience) has entered the race. House Member Kendrick Meek (D) has announced his candidacy in the Democratic primary run for the Martinez seat. Meek represents Florida's 17th District in Congress, a district that stretches from North Miami to Hollywood, just inland off the coast. Meek, despite some low name ID statewide could be a formidable candidate. He hails from a well connected political family (Meek's mother Carrie had been the previous office-holder from the same district), he spent eight years in the Florida legislature (both House and Senate), and serves on the Ways and Means Committee in the U.S. House (one of the so-called "prestige" committees). Meek could also bring together the Democratic Party in Florida. He was an early backer of Senator Clinton in the Presidential primary (certainly made notable largely because Meek is African-American and hails from a predominantly black district), but has now hired Steve Hildebrand - Obama's deputy campaign manager. And massive money raiser (and spender) Chris Korge appears to be an early backer as well.