Good news, bad news, and the Solomonic compromise

The good news greeting Charlie Crist is another poll showing him slightly ahead of Marco Rubio and significantly in front of Kendrick Meek in the Senate race. Of the three post-independent announcement three-way polls, Crist has been ahead in two and Rubio has been ahead in the other. The bad news for Crist is that his gamble to go in front of the AFL-CIO and publicly ask for their endorsement failed. The AFL-CIO is endorsing Meek. Some sting might come off as the teacher's union "split" their endorsement between Meek and Crist. What does that mean? Well getting an endorsement is useful for fundraising and organized efforts at getting out the vote. Crist may well capture some AFL-CIO union members votes - regardless of the endorsement, but he can now "spin" the teacher's union split endorsement (as can Meek) in his fundraising pleas and can try to use the organization for GOTV efforts.

Understanding Polls

Maurice Ferre, former Mayor of Miami, and declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida occupied by George Lemieux, “is touting poll results that show he does almost as well as Meek when matched up against likely Republican candidates.”  The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, shows that when the individuals polled in hypothetical matchups between Governor Crist and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre, or Speaker Rubio and and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre that Ferre faired about as well as Meek, that, in the words of Ferre – that Ferre and Meek are “virtually tied.”

From "Political Wire"

According to a Taegan Goddard post over at Political Wire:

"A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist (R) crushing Marco Rubio (R) in a Republican Senate primary, 59% to 22%. ... In general election match ups, Crist runs way ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), 59% to 29%. With Rubio as the GOP Senate nominee, Rubio edges Meek, 31% to 30% with 39% undecided."

An early poll

Marco Rubio will have his work cut out for him - not particularly helped by having the State party apparatus endorsing Charlie Crist - if this early poll means anything. According to a poll of 300 Republican voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Sachs firm, showed Rubio with only 18 percent of the vote, with Governor Crist at more than 50 percent of the vote (undecideds at 29 percent, and the margin of error being +-6).

While certainly Rubio would prefer to have done better, most political scientists agree that early polls are predictive of very little. And some of you might remember some also ran named Obama badly trailing Hilary Rodham Clinton in the early polls. What are early polls good for? Not quite "absolutely nothing." Politicians can use these early polls as part of their fundraising mechanism, which can in turn work on name ID, which can in turn improve future polls - which can be quite predictive of winners. But there is a lot of "noise" involved in this line of causation - making these early polls not particularly important.