Showing posts with label Buchanan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Buchanan. Show all posts

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem


Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.


Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Rumors, rumors, rumors


On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.