The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.

Gelber inching closer

Florida Senator and Former House Minority Leader Dan Gelber is getting closer to an official announcement of his candidacy for running for the U.S. Senate. It's interesting to compare Gelber and Ron Klein who share a natural South Florida Jewish Democratic constituency, but fairly limited name recognition through-out the state. Klein has proven to be a better fund-raiser and is less caustic than Gelber, and is a bit more conservative. But Gelber can have his cake and eat it too; Florida has a "Resign to Run" law that effectively bars one from holding office and running for another office. The Florida legislature, however, created an exception that would exempt one who holds state office and runs for federal office (largely thought to have been for Governor Crist, opening a pathway to the Vice Presidency). For all of the other Democratic contenders, including Klein, they will have to give up their current federal seats when running for the Senate; Gelber can have a nice-fall back job should he fail to win the U.S. Senate seat.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.