Mel Martinez Resigns

How do you know a politician is not telling the truth? His lips are moving - or so the joke goes. Well, just a few months after claiming that he will serve the remainder of his term, Senator Mel Martinez has announced that he is stepping down. As the Constitution vests the power to fill vacancies in Congress to the Executive Authority in the State - this means that leading Senate candidate and Governor Charlie Crist gets to name a Martinez replacement. That could, but likely wont, include the Governor himself. Some potential names being brought forward are former Governor Bob Martinez (could this save money on letterhead?) :-), former Secretary of State Jim Smith, former Senator Connie Mack, former Speaker of the House Alan Bense, and former Congressman Clay Shaw.

Uh-oh...

This has shades of Katherine Harris' failed campaign for the Senate in 2006. Two of Marco Rubio's top campaign officials: his campaign manager and his top fundraising consultant - are off of the payroll. According to Adam Smith's reporting, Marco Rubio claimed that these changes are just part of the "unconventional" campaign against Republican front-runner Charlie Crist. Um, well - no. If this were an all volunteer campaign - maybe. But to go from well-paid to nothing? It's not over, but the fat lady has cleared her throat and is approaching the microphone.

Fundraising and the Cost of a Campaign

Newly released fundraising numbers show Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (R) pulling in 1.2m and 4.3m respectively in the last quarter. Republican challenger Marco Rubio pulled in $340,000.

For some state perspective, consider (according to Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times):

"This was the first fundraising period since Rubio announced his candidacy, though earlier this year he raised about $250,000 when he was still in an exploratory phase. At this point in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, Mel Martinez raised $1.7 million, then-U.S. Rep. Mark Foley raised more than $700,000, Larry Klayman raised $673,000 and Bill McCollum raised $330,000."

Live Blogging Rubio DeMint Conference Call

Former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio is holding a bloggers conference call today, building off of his endorsement by stalwart conservative Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC).

Said DeMint: "Americans are increasingly [alarmed] by the direction of our country. ... and Americans, not just Republicans, are looking for an alternative. ... It is important that we don't offer the status quo. ... Marco has convinced me that he can win the race in Florida and help set the tone for Republicans across the country."

In response to my question to Rubio about his plan to raise his name identification outside of south Florida. Paraphrased "We started early; we are still 16 months out. ... We plan to travel everywhere, go anywhere, raise enough money with voters. ... This campaign will come from the bottom up, not from the top down."

And in a follow-up: "Typical Republican campaigns are about endorsements, raising money, and going on TV. [But we are not] running a conventional campaign. That's not my kind of campaign. It's about ideas."

From "Political Wire"

According to a Taegan Goddard post over at Political Wire:

"A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist (R) crushing Marco Rubio (R) in a Republican Senate primary, 59% to 22%. ... In general election match ups, Crist runs way ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), 59% to 29%. With Rubio as the GOP Senate nominee, Rubio edges Meek, 31% to 30% with 39% undecided."

Corrine Brown

Member of Congress Corrine Brown (D-FL3) has formed an exploratory committee regarding a run for the U.S. Senate, setting up a challenge to Kendrick Meek. Brown is just slightly more liberal than Meek (although not as liberal as Meek was when he was first elected). Brown's DW/Nominate scores for the last three congresses: -0.43, -0.42, -0.42; Meek came in at .39 in those same terms. Brown has a slightly incendiary history, having called the Bush policy in Haiti "racist" and telling Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) that "you all look alike to me." She, however, is not from South Florida - something that she must believe will prove important to voters.

Endorsements

Jeb Bush Jr., son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have come out to endorse Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. Governor Crist has been endorsed by Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and now Lindsay Graham (SC).

Endorsements are more about positioning (Crist to the center and Rubio to the right) than anything meaningful, when the candidates are well-known. Dog-catcher races might be more susceptible to the power of an endorsement, but the U.S. Senate is probably a different story.

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

An early poll

Marco Rubio will have his work cut out for him - not particularly helped by having the State party apparatus endorsing Charlie Crist - if this early poll means anything. According to a poll of 300 Republican voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Sachs firm, showed Rubio with only 18 percent of the vote, with Governor Crist at more than 50 percent of the vote (undecideds at 29 percent, and the margin of error being +-6).

While certainly Rubio would prefer to have done better, most political scientists agree that early polls are predictive of very little. And some of you might remember some also ran named Obama badly trailing Hilary Rodham Clinton in the early polls. What are early polls good for? Not quite "absolutely nothing." Politicians can use these early polls as part of their fundraising mechanism, which can in turn work on name ID, which can in turn improve future polls - which can be quite predictive of winners. But there is a lot of "noise" involved in this line of causation - making these early polls not particularly important.

Blastoff

Ladies and gentlemen - we have blastoff. The Crist candidacy is official.

“Over the last several months I have spoken with many Floridians about the challenges that we face together and the issues affecting our daily lives. Our country is facing the most profound public policy questions in our lifetime – questions relating to the economy, taxes, healthcare, the environment and national security. The answers to these questions will have a lasting impact on the country we love and the nation we will leave to our children and grandchildren. As I have previously said, my decision whether to seek the office of U.S. Senator or re-election as Governor would not be made until after the important work of the Legislature was completed at which time I could reflect on how to best serve the people of this great state. Here in Florida, we’ve shown that when we put people first and work together much can be accomplished, and I intend to bring that same approach to Washington. That is why, after thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate. As Governor, each day I will continue to focus on fighting for all Floridians. And if I am given the honor of serving as their Senator, I will take that fight for the people of this state I love so dearly to the halls of Congress. Thank you and God bless the great state of Florida and the United States of America.”

T-1

And an opening salvo from the Rubio camp, notable only in that Crist has yet to announce.

3, 2, 1...

The countdown to Governor Crist's announcement of his intention to run for the Senate seat now occupied by Senator Mel Martinez is at T-2. According to both his former Chief of Staff and the head of the Republican Party, Tuesday, in Tallahassee, Governor Crist will announce his plans.

Charlie Crist ran for the U.S. Senate once before - back in 1998, as a Republican in a Democratic-Presidential midterm election - and was crushed by (incumbent) Bob Graham 62-38. Crist won just four counties, and barely cracked 25% of the vote in three Democratic strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. But Crist's political skills have come a long way since then. For a really interesting read, check out Steve Bosquet's 2006 piece here, and some speculation about how the Governor might do in the 2010 race here.

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist

Conventional wisdom holds that the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist will win the U.S. Senate race in a walk. Despite the economic turmoil of the State, Governor Crist still enjoys high state-wide polling. While to many this seems unassailable, one method for beating Charlie at this game is not to let him play. To win the Senate seat, he needs to be the nominee of his own party - and that ladies and gentlemen is where the Governor could be vulnerable. Given the Governor's vocal and visible support for President Obama's stimulous package, there may be an exploitable cleavage to the right. In fact, in the latest polling, Governor Crist's negatives were higher among Republicans than among Democrats or Independents. Enter Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House, who, in addition to being a Jeb Bush protege who can draw upon support from Jeb's network, amassed a very conservative voting record in the Florida legislature. And Rubio has now also made a nice investment among the Tea Party crowd that could provide dividends in a Republican primary. His statewide name identification is still low, but that's what his campaign would have to be about: the branding of Marco Rubio. Expect lots of exposure from Speaker Rubio regarding (1) education (Jeb's specialty and 33 of the first 100 ideas from Rubio's book: "100 Innovative Ideas For Florida's Future: A Plan of Action"), (2) the economy (especially taxes, and spending), and (3) Cuba policy.

The Dance

Throughout this preliminary period of the 2010 election season, a number of candidates have danced about whether to enter the race. This "warm-up" period is quite common. Consider the "testing the waters" presidential campaigns waged by Senator Russ Feingold in 2006 and 2007. Candidates might be serious about entering the race, but don't forget that at heart politicians are, well, political. This means that they may be pushed by particular interests to run - or might simply be interested in raising their profile either for a separate purpose or simply because that is what politicians do. But once in a while, what looks like simply dipping a toe in the river is just the first step to taking the plunge. Former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio is now backing away from his earlier thoughts about vacating the field for Governor Crist. Many Republicans have been feeling as of late that Governor Crist has been vacating the Repubican field - and a primary challenge might be just the antidote to either (1) beat Charlie head-to-head, or (2) move the Governor back to the right to govern.

Is Sununu Next?

Former New Hampshire Senator, and now Florida resident, Bob Smith has officially announced that he is entering the Republican race to replace Senator Martinez. Smith's career as a Senator was typically on the fringe; not only did he once leave the Republican Party to seek the Presidency for the U.S. Taxpayers Party - he subsequently endorsed Democrtic Senator Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. I believe that qualifies him as an atypical political official.

No Mack

Connie Mack has announced, via a letter to Charlie Crist, that he will not seek the U.S. Senate seat held by Senator Martinez. Further, Mack's letter to Crist proclaimed: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion - regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate." The liklihood of a Crist run seems to be increasing with time. The state legislative session ends in the next few weeks, and Crist is widely expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans in May.

Waiting on Charlie

While most Republicans will wait for Governor Crist to announce his plans on whether to enter the Senate race in May, one Republican has entered the fray. Dr. Marion Thorpe, who took on (and lost against) Congressman Alcee Hastings for a House run in 2008, has announced his candidacy. Though Thorpe lacks elected office experience (see below for a discussion of amateurs in Congress), Thorpe's bio has plenty of nuggets for the insider politics hopeful. He has been the chief medical officer for Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration and has held leadership positions with city and statewide political committees. His policy platform looks solidly conservative on abortion, the economy, and taxes, and he tacks slightly more moderate position on immigration. It's a plausible candidacy; but like most everyone else - we are still all waiting on Charlie.

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Unknowns

As the primary races begin to shape up, we have had several announcements of who is in, here, here, here, and here, and of course, several announcements of who is out here, here and here. Two of the Known Unknowns appear to be at least mildly positioning themselves to be ready for a Senate run. The "wait and see" approach of Governor Crist has effectively frozen the Republican field for the lesser known names, but we've also seen in recent weeks MSNBC Morning Joe host and former Congressman Joe Scarborough increasing both his Florida bona fides and taking on a sharper partisan tack (largely on his radio show and on his appearance on Meet the Press this past weekend; his daily Morning Joe show continues to be, in my opinion, the single best unbiased and balanced show among all of political television). These are both of our top Known Unknowns - will they or won't they? And maybe, just maybe - would Joe be the one person in Florida who would run in a Republican primary against Charlie?

But in true Rumsfeldian fashion, there are also the Unknown Unknowns - what kinds of things could happen down the road to shake this up even more? Sexual scandals, ethics charges, a political newcomer, and a changing (maybe?) economy are the most likely culprits.

Iorio Pros and Cons

The St. Pete Times' Political Editor has the pros and cons of Tampa Bay Mayor Pam Iorio (is that pronounced "Yore-e-o" or "Eyeore-e-o"?) entering the Democratic primary for the Senate race. The assets for her would be capitalizing on the diffusion of support for several South Florida politicians, being the only woman in the race, and being the only candidate from the I-4 corridor. Her lack of demonstrated support for fellow party members and the mismatch between the executive skill set possessed and the legislative skill set needed may hinder her candidacy.

If the race turns on low information voters, Iorio's pros can go a long way. Yet primary voters tend to be better informed and more extreme than general election voters. As the Mayor of a large city, she likely enjoys high name ID in the Tampa region and a recent poll is at least mildly suggestive that her name has filtered beyond the city limits.

Actors, Astronauts, Athletes and Amateurs in Congress

While it is true that the Constitutional qualifications to hold congressional office are quite minimal, there are tried and true paths to the U.S. Capitol. House Members typically have been state legislators, and U.S. Senators have either been a House Member or fabulously wealthy, or both. These individuals not only have experience campaigning, but have already established a network of money and professional staff, and most importantly name identification. Yet despite this tried and true method of ascending to the Hill, there are plenty of people who made their way to Washington with little to no political experience. Consider the most recently defeated House Member from Florida’s 16th District. Congressman Tim Mahoney had never held elective office prior to becoming a Member of Congress. So how did he win? Quite simply, he was in the right place at the right time. Most seasoned Democrats had stayed away from the 2006 race against then-incumbent Mark Foley, largely because he seemed unbeatable. According to noted Congressional scholar (and my former professor) David Canon, that’s sort of a recipe for a political amateur to enter a race; when Foley was undone because of a salacious scandal involving young House Pages – there was Tim Mahoney ready to pick up the pieces and win. And yet despite his once amateur status, he was thought by many to be on his way to a decent House career (until, of course, he was derailed by his own sex scandal).

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.

Good for South Florida!

Looks like Attorney General Bill McCollum and Congressman Allen Boyd have both decided against running for the Senate. That leaves all three major candidates for the Democratic nomination from South Florida, and also knocks off a Republican non-south Floridian. Though there some indications that there could be a Democratic woman from central Florida considering a run.

This could also mean that the Republican field is being cleared for Charlie Crist. Although I think this to be unlikely, the logic goes something like: get out of Florida with still high numbers (the looming budget mess could act like an albatross on the Governor's high approval ratings), position himself for a 2016 White House run (staying as governor runs his term until 2014, leaving him paying his own dime for trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), and DC might be a more attractive town for a newly married man than Tallahassee.

Senate Candidate Ideology Estimates

Political scientists and interest groups often use scaling mechanisms to describe legislators and other political actors. While we know that the (nominal) measures of partisan identification give us some information about ideology (knowing that an individual is a Republican versus a Democrat), we are also used to more ordinal measures of ideology. Thus we have "Blue-Dog Democrats" or "Northeastern Republicans," which convey a sense of ideology in a comparative sense; Blue-dog Democrats are more conservative than a standard Democrat and Northeastern Republicans are more liberal than a standard Republican. But we can also attempt to come up with interval measures of ideology which not only gives the relative position of candidate ideology (e.g., "he is more than conservative than she") but also a sense of the distance between candidates. While we know from Howard Dean's famous talking point that he declared himself part of the "Democratic-Wing of the Democratic Party," we can't really tell from this statement how much more liberal he was than John Kerry. Is a conservative Democrat more conservative than a liberal Republican?

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.

Mack on Hold?

Connie Mack IV (R), a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, appears to be hedging on his Senate run - at least outwardly proclaiming that he would defer to a Charlie Crist run for the Senate. Mack is an attractive candidate for the Senate for many reasons: solid conservative credentials with a few well-known moderate stances, political experience, high name ID (largely owed to his family), and decent fundraising ability. He is dutifully waiting on the leader of the party in the State, and did the same for Jeb. While this many not strike the general public as the strongest qualities of a leader - this kind of deference goes a long way toward appeasing the party faithful (generally a prerequisite for a primary run).

Gelber inching closer

Florida Senator and Former House Minority Leader Dan Gelber is getting closer to an official announcement of his candidacy for running for the U.S. Senate. It's interesting to compare Gelber and Ron Klein who share a natural South Florida Jewish Democratic constituency, but fairly limited name recognition through-out the state. Klein has proven to be a better fund-raiser and is less caustic than Gelber, and is a bit more conservative. But Gelber can have his cake and eat it too; Florida has a "Resign to Run" law that effectively bars one from holding office and running for another office. The Florida legislature, however, created an exception that would exempt one who holds state office and runs for federal office (largely thought to have been for Governor Crist, opening a pathway to the Vice Presidency). For all of the other Democratic contenders, including Klein, they will have to give up their current federal seats when running for the Senate; Gelber can have a nice-fall back job should he fail to win the U.S. Senate seat.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.

Governor to Senator?

Despite pleas from Senator Cornyn (R-TX), head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman (basically the Senator in charge of all of the 2010 races) for Charlie Crist to enter the fray, money should not be put on this guy to run. He avoids the trappings of term-limits, but the transition from Executive to Legislator is not always so easy. In fact, the Republicans may be losing two Senators this cycle who will return home to run for Governor (Brownback-KS and Hutchison-TX). These jobs call for very different skill sets and desire for the klieg lights. Governor Crist's response to how much interest he has in the seat? "Not much."

First in the water

While names have been dropping off the radar screen (Jeb Bush, Alex Sink, Joe Scarborough), the first serious candidate (one with significant electoral experience) has entered the race. House Member Kendrick Meek (D) has announced his candidacy in the Democratic primary run for the Martinez seat. Meek represents Florida's 17th District in Congress, a district that stretches from North Miami to Hollywood, just inland off the coast. Meek, despite some low name ID statewide could be a formidable candidate. He hails from a well connected political family (Meek's mother Carrie had been the previous office-holder from the same district), he spent eight years in the Florida legislature (both House and Senate), and serves on the Ways and Means Committee in the U.S. House (one of the so-called "prestige" committees). Meek could also bring together the Democratic Party in Florida. He was an early backer of Senator Clinton in the Presidential primary (certainly made notable largely because Meek is African-American and hails from a predominantly black district), but has now hired Steve Hildebrand - Obama's deputy campaign manager. And massive money raiser (and spender) Chris Korge appears to be an early backer as well.

Welcome

Welcome to what may be the definitive space for information related to the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Florida, mixing a bit of attention to the news with a dash of political science. It is required reading for my students at Florida Atlantic University, and recommended to all. With Senator Mel Martinez (R) announcing that he will not run for re-election, the race became wide-open. There are two cross-cutting phenomena at work here. First, typically when an incumbent announces that he or she will not run for re-election, this is a sign of expected electoral trouble for the incumbent party (here the Republicans). Second, midterm elections usually break against the party in power in the White House (here the Democrats). So here we now have a Senate race with no clear front-runner (incumbents generally win Senate about three out of every four races entered), the typical indicators of which party may win are at odds with one another, and the state is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans in terms of partisan registration and voting behavior. Welcome to the race; it should be quite the ride.