Thursday, May 7, 2009

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist


Conventional wisdom holds that the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist will win the U.S. Senate race in a walk. Despite the economic turmoil of the State, Governor Crist still enjoys high state-wide polling. While to many this seems unassailable, one method for beating Charlie at this game is not to let him play. To win the Senate seat, he needs to be the nominee of his own party - and that ladies and gentlemen is where the Governor could be vulnerable. Given the Governor's vocal and visible support for President Obama's stimulous package, there may be an exploitable cleavage to the right. In fact, in the latest polling, Governor Crist's negatives were higher among Republicans than among Democrats or Independents. Enter Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House, who, in addition to being a Jeb Bush protege who can draw upon support from Jeb's network, amassed a very conservative voting record in the Florida legislature. And Rubio has now also made a nice investment among the Tea Party crowd that could provide dividends in a Republican primary. His statewide name identification is still low, but that's what his campaign would have to be about: the branding of Marco Rubio. Expect lots of exposure from Speaker Rubio regarding (1) education (Jeb's specialty and 33 of the first 100 ideas from Rubio's book: "100 Innovative Ideas For Florida's Future: A Plan of Action"), (2) the economy (especially taxes, and spending), and (3) Cuba policy.