Showing posts with label President Clinton. Show all posts
Showing posts with label President Clinton. Show all posts

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Polls and Money, Money and Polls


Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.