Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.
The early scuttle on fundraising within the Senate race mostly comes from the Democratic side of things. Congressman Ron Klein has about $1.7 million in campaign funds that can be used in the Senate race; Congressman Allen Boyd has $1.2 million; and now word comes that President Clinton is coming to Miami for a fundraiser for Congressman Kendrick Meek on Friday, January 30. The race could cost as much as $30 million; that is about $1.5 million per month or $50,000 a day.
UPDATE: Meek's haul from the Clinton event: 300K.
Full disclosure - my wife has donated to and raised funds for Congressman Klein in his 2006 and 2008 U.S. House races.
