A Reversal of Fortunes

Thank you to the roughly 10,000 readers (er, hits) on this website. I tried to bring to light some aspects of this, perhaps unusual, race for the Senate using a bit of political science. Wow – congratulations to Marco Rubio on running a pretty amazing campaign. I have more to say below, but clearly this was not a coronation type run for the Senate. And my thoughts are also with Kendrick Meek who could not catch a break in this campaign. Just about everything that could go wrong for the guy broke against him, despite his best efforts. And Governor Crist – simply amazing. What a lesson in what not to do! An epic fail for sure.

I started this blog in January 2009, just a few days before President Obama took the reins in office and right after Senator Mel Martinez announced that he would not seek re-election. Kendrick Meek entered the race quite quickly. When Governor Crist was asked how much interest he had in running, Crist responded “Not much.” He should have trusted his instincts then. Dan Gelber put his hat in the ring, only to quit later when he was behind and run for Attorney General. He lost that race too. And most Republicans thought to run all waited on Charlie Crist, including Connie Mack and Bill McCollum. Except one guy – one guy who had just a 13-17% favorability rating – with almost 70% of those polled saying that they had no opinion of Marco Rubio. In April of 2009, Marco Rubio had a conference call with the press and bloggers and tipped his hand that he was running. He aligned himself with the then nascent Tea Party movement, and started on this odyssey that has now been marked with this victory.

After Rubio entered the race, Governor Crist jumped in as well, despite his already high negatives from Republicans. The Republican establishment (notably the State party apparatus and the national Republican Senatorial election committees) backed Crist, including Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and Lindsay Graham (SC). Rubio was left with the also rans (Mike Huckabee) and the extreme (Jim DeMint). Rubio, however, was undaunted by the early polls showing him trailing Crist by 40 points: "We started early; we are still 16 months out. ... We plan to travel everywhere, go anywhere, raise enough money with voters. ... This campaign will come from the bottom up, not from the top down." Despite the bravado, Rubio badly trailed in the money race and then in July 2009, there was a shakeup in the Rubio campaign – where Rubio dropped his campaign manager and top fundraising consultant. I, for one, saw this as a sign that Rubio was just about done.

So what happened next? Mel Martinez did exactly what he said he would not do. He resigned from office early. As Governor, Crist was then charged with appointing Martinez’s successor. He could have appointed himself, but showed at least some restraint there. Or he could have appointed a consensus candidate, a Florida senior statesman: former Governor Bob Martinez, former Secretary of State Jim Smith, former Senator Connie Mack, former Speaker of the House Alan Bense, or former Congressman Clay Shaw. But instead Crist took a gamble and appointed his own former Chief-of-Staff George LeMieux. This was the same time that Congress passed the Obama health-care bill, and as the Tea Party movement gained strength. Rubio expanded his endorsements beyond the extremes of DeMint, Armey, Pat Buchanan, and started hearing from budget stalwarts like Paul Ryan. The County level straw-polls came back one after another with Rubio trouncing the Governor. In races around the country – in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, candidates who preached a message of fiscal conservatism, limited government, strong national defense, and anti-health care had stunning victories. The local races nationalized, and candidates with the same message as Rubio were starting to win.

By February 2010, Crist was in free fall. Rubio was beating Crist by 12 points. Crist then agreed to debate Marco Rubio – and claimed that Rubio was not conservative enough. Florida voters must have whiplash to recover from the outlandish claims that Crist has made throughout this campaign! So Mr. Crist then got hit with some extreme bills in the State Legislature, including education and abortion. Crist had clearly fallen out of favor with the Republican leadership in the State, and they pushed the Governor hard. Crist thought that if he vetoed these extreme bills that he could then run as an independent, and beat Rubio and Meek in a three-way race. In late April 2010, Crist bolted from the Republican Party and “ran for the people.”

Meek had a hard-luck campaign. Despite being a Democratic centrist (or even slightly conservative), and despite successfully navigating the in-fighting in the Democratic Party (he was Clinton supporter in the ’08 primary, but then got a huge burst of support from the Obama team), he was the second story in Florida. It was pretty difficult to get any air, with both Crist and Rubio in a death-match. And then came along the Hollywood-weird mortgage meltdown tycoon Jeff Greene in a Democratic primary challenge. Along came some grumblings about a developer scandal involving Meek and his mother, and some Dems started to publicly back Charlie Crist. Meek was, however, able to hold on to the AFL-CIO crowd (despite Governor Crist’s plea for an endorsement) and eventually beat Jeff Greene. But it was not until August – just about 10 weeks ago, that Meek could even set his sights squarely on the three-way race. And as of ten weeks ago, running as a Democrat in Florida was not really a great place to be. Just ask Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, or Alex Sink.

Governor Crist should have stayed out of this race in the very beginning. And when he was faced with losing the primary, he should have quit the race. But now, he’s done. His flip-flops on policy and personal accusations against Rubio were a disgrace. A once ridiculously popular governor now has no office, no party, and a lot of burned bridges. A truly colossal fall from grace.

Marco Rubio will be one of the more conservative members of the U.S. Senate, and he will even be pushed by some to either run for President or Vice-President – literally as soon as 2012 (remember, Obama was only elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006). From a guy who had no office (having been term-limited out of the House in 2008), no party (well, the establishment was against him) and he will suddenly be the prettiest girl at the dance. Talk about a reversal of fortunes. He ran a great race, and he was in the right place at the right time. But he put himself there, and he weathered some rough patches during his campaign. He certainly benefited from the structural forces of the 2010 race at work here, especially running from the opposition party in a mid-term election. But clearly, not all Republicans around the country won last night. Give full credit here for to Rubio for being largely consistent on message, doing the best he could with limited name ID and money, and not backing away from a challenge - including having the party establishment against him. Yes the comparisons to Obama are probably premature, but they are not irrational. Keep watching this guy.

Thanks for reading. This blog is now over.