Monday, March 2, 2009

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Unknowns


As the primary races begin to shape up, we have had several announcements of who is in, here, here, here, and here, and of course, several announcements of who is out here, here and here. Two of the Known Unknowns appear to be at least mildly positioning themselves to be ready for a Senate run. The "wait and see" approach of Governor Crist has effectively frozen the Republican field for the lesser known names, but we've also seen in recent weeks MSNBC Morning Joe host and former Congressman Joe Scarborough increasing both his Florida bona fides and taking on a sharper partisan tack (largely on his radio show and on his appearance on Meet the Press this past weekend; his daily Morning Joe show continues to be, in my opinion, the single best unbiased and balanced show among all of political television). These are both of our top Known Unknowns - will they or won't they? And maybe, just maybe - would Joe be the one person in Florida who would run in a Republican primary against Charlie?

But in true Rumsfeldian fashion, there are also the Unknown Unknowns - what kinds of things could happen down the road to shake this up even more? Sexual scandals, ethics charges, a political newcomer, and a changing (maybe?) economy are the most likely culprits.