The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters shows Rubio increasing his lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (now by 23 points), and also shows Rubio ahead of Meek in a two-person general election showdown (by just 4 points). Quinnipiac also polled a three-way race with Crist as an independent against Rubio and Meek and shows Crist actually winning that race (by 2 points).
Crist has vehemently denied that would run as an independent several times – yet today vetoed a major education reform bill that had been championed by Jeb Bush. His veto certainly won no favors among the Republicans – but Crist had already made himself persona non-grata among a growing share of Republicans. In the last several weeks there has been a huge public outcry in Florida among teachers and parents urging the Republican controlled legislature to stop the bill’s passage – and once those efforts failed, to Governor Crist to veto this bill.
The easiest historical corollary for Governor Crist would be look to the Connecticut race for the US Senate in 2006. That year, Ned Lamont (and a push from the extreme of the party) defeated Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But Lieberman then ran as an independent in the general election and defeated the Democratic nominee Lamont and the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in that three-way race.
So if Joe could do it, can Charlie?
Probably not. In the 2006 Connecticut race, Lieberman turned that race into a two person race – Lamont versus Lieberman, round 2. The Republican candidate routinely polled at less than 10% of the vote, and Lieberman was able to capture 33% of the Democratic vote, 54% of the Independent vote, and 70% of the Republican vote. It’s pretty unlikely that Crist could capture 70 percent of Democratic vote in Florida with a viable Democratic candidate (the thought that the DelBoca Vista crowd would suddenly embrace Chain Gang Charlie strains credulity), or that he would be able to keep even 1/3 of Republicans in light of the electric Rubio campaign.
If Crist decides to run as an independent, he has until April 30 to make that choice. Under Florida law, Crist would have to change his party affiliation to make it possible. Stay tuned...
