And the winner is...

Kendrick Meek. The first debate between Governor Crist and Speaker Rubio had been much anticipated, but probably resulted in an unlikely winner: the Democratic nominee (likely Meek). Certainly today both Crist and Rubio will declare that each "won" the debate (and for what it's worth, some of the national press and the local folks here and here believe, as I do, that Rubio performed better). But what is winning? The real winner is the person who receives more votes because of the debate. That "because of" is a pretty difficult standard - largely because there are so many other causal factors at work in voting for a candidate that putting much on a debate is difficult. What can usually be gained from a debate is building Name ID throughout the electorate. It's probably a stretch to think that Governor Crist could really increase his Name ID. His problem is that voters know him, and don't particularly like him. Rubio, despite his budding nationwide reputation (all sorts of "hail the new future of the Republican Party" ideas surrounding Rubio), could stand to gain on Name ID in Florida. But the problem is that Rubio is already winning, and whether he receives 50.1% of the vote or, more likely, puts up some gaudy numbers against Crist, he still wins. And once he wins, he has to face the Democratic nominee - who is likely Kendrick Meek. Yet Rubio often served as a punching bag yesterday for Crist during the debate, undergoing a near constant personal assault. Crist not only tried to tar Rubio with facts (use of a RPOF credit card for personal expenses that were reimbursed and some double billing on airline tickets) - but Crist recklessly put out speculative charges that he (Crist) kept saying that even he (Crist) did not know if they were true (related to tax returns). Who can benefit here? Meek. Meek can follow the fruitful trails led by the Governor and try to avoid Crist's pitfalls.