As the April 30 “no party affiliation” deadline approaches, according to most observers, Governor Crist faces three choices:
(1) soldier on in the primary against Rubio
(2) gracefully withdraw from this race, and set his sights on a Bill - either:
a. McCollum for Governor
b. Nelson for Senator in 2012
(3) attempt to run for the Senate seat with no party affiliation
These are all poor choices for Charlie; at this point he must only be thinking about “satisficing” rather than “optimizing.”
Should the Governor continue to run against Rubio in the Republican primary, the trajectory is not kind to Charlie. Not only has Rubio been pulling way in front in the polls, but he’s been a fundraising phenomenon and has expanded his endorsement base from the quixotic ideologues to the very real mainstream of the Republican Party. Absent a complete Rubio meltdown (e.g., criminal charges, sex scandal), this is no path the US Senate for the Governor. And I mean “complete” meltdown – my read on the ethics issue, is that this is really no issue at all. It is just not resonating with the voters. Sorry Charlie.
Another idea for the Governor would be to withdraw from the Republican primary against Rubio and enter a different race – but still as a Republican. The Governor could simply train his sights on Senator Nelson for the 2012 race, and barely have to change a word of his campaign literature. Or the Governor could try to keep the office he has – running in what would likely be a contested primary against the current Attorney General Bill McCollum. McCollum has been underwhelming so far; he remains an engaging public speaker and accomplished politician – but with very little of the shiny patina one expects of Florida’s statewide leader. But the Governor’s veto of SB6 (the education merit/reform bill) was a stick in the eye of Jeb Bush and the Republican Party, and was, effectively, Charlie Crist’s Republican resignation letter. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party would get behind a Crist candidacy for dog catcher at this point.
The last, and most “chic” of his choices would be to run as an independent (technically, “no party affiliation”) in Florida and turn the Senate race into a three-way race. Crist would probably feel bolstered the Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead in that race – but these early polls need to be taken with some caution. First, that current snapshot is devoid of the actual campaign (i.e., how will both Meek and Rubio attack Crist? – both of whom will want to hold onto their voters). Second, how would Crist raise money? (he has raised more than 7 million dollars, but his cash-on-hand is around 2.5 million, which could buy about 2.5 weeks of statewide ad-buys) and how would he put together a staff? (the Republican Party would likely pressure the “bench” – the lower level Town Council members, County Commissioners and such who typically make-up the county-wide election committees, with retribution for helping Charlie). Additionally, with both real established candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, the path for a Crist victory is exceptionally unlikely.
Given these options, if I were Charlie – I would think about leading a university, an energy company, a hedge-fund or some other non-elected office. Time to think outside of the box.
