One cleared primary, one contested primary

Just as the Governor moved out of the Republican primary, setting up a chic three-way Senate race, political newcomer and real estate billionaire Jeff Greene looks to be entering the Democratic primary. He is being advised by Joe Trippi (former advisor to Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, and Howard Dean - all four guys who were never elected President) and pollster Doug Schoen (who polled for both President and Hillary Clinton).


Greene made his most recent oodles of money (and he had plenty before) betting against the sub-prime mortgage market (particularly the two-year ARMs in California and Nevada), and has surrounded himself with the Hollywood weird (Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss, and Mike Tyson all get a mention in this Forbes magazine interview).


Expect significant push-back from the Democratic Party. Meek has not been overwhelming, but he has been operating within the Crist-Rubio soap-opera for the last year and party folks had been waiting for the end of that saga to start making headway in the electorate. This guy can't seem to catch a break.


Welcome to Florida folks: hanging chads, Bush v. Gore, Mark Foley, Tim Mahoney, Charlie Crist, and now Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss and Mike Tyson. Truly amazing.

Populism and a Broadside Attack on Parties

As expected, Governor Crist announced on Thursday that he will continue his race for the U.S. Senate by switching to "no party affiliation." You can watch his constant uttering of "people, people, people" and see his broadside attack on political parties below.

As both partisanship in Congress increases, and voter identification with political parties wanes - Crist's line of attack here makes some sense. Political scientists tend to discuss political parties, much like the media and other interest groups, in that each are links between government and the electorate. They can mobilize the citizenry to establish policy preferences, and serve to communicate between the government and electorate. They are also quite useful for to recruit candidates and support compliant representatives (we think of this as "mobilization"). In this capacity they serve both an organizational component, and a financial one. And parties are quite useful in crafting messages and helping to establish an agenda (we think of this as "communication").

Parties today, however, have become somewhat less important (although not really "not important"). Overall, the communication role can also be filled by television, and the mobilization role can be filled by interest groups. The questions for Governor Crist - can he use his cash on hand and fundraising skill to use television effectively? And will the teachers and the Seminole Tribe be effective at mobilization? Filling his staff with skilled professionals and continuing his fundraising are questionable.

Countdown 2-1...

Governor Crist will announce on Thursday, April 29, his intentions regarding his participation in the 2010 Senate race. If he runs, as now widely expected (and what will likely fail) as an independent, expect to hear a mixture of post-partisan and populism: "I didn't leave the party. The party left me." and "I represent the people." You can take the quintessential cliched man out of the Republican Party, but you can't take the quintessential cliches out of Charlie.

Charlie's Choice

As the April 30 “no party affiliation” deadline approaches, according to most observers, Governor Crist faces three choices:

(1)    soldier on in the primary against Rubio

(2)    gracefully withdraw from this race, and set his sights on a Bill - either:

a.       McCollum for Governor

b.      Nelson for Senator in 2012

(3)    attempt to run for the Senate seat with no party affiliation

These are all poor choices for Charlie; at this point he must only be thinking about “satisficing” rather than “optimizing.”

Should the Governor continue to run against Rubio in the Republican primary, the trajectory is not kind to Charlie. Not only has Rubio been pulling way in front in the polls, but he’s been a fundraising phenomenon and has expanded his endorsement base from the quixotic ideologues to the very real mainstream of the Republican Party. Absent a complete Rubio meltdown (e.g., criminal charges, sex scandal), this is no path the US Senate for the Governor. And I mean “complete” meltdown – my read on the ethics issue, is that this is really no issue at all. It is just not resonating with the voters. Sorry Charlie.

Another idea for the Governor would be to withdraw from the Republican primary against Rubio and enter a different race – but still as a Republican. The Governor could simply train his sights on Senator Nelson for the 2012 race, and barely have to change a word of his campaign literature. Or the Governor could try to keep the office he has – running in what would likely be a contested primary against the current Attorney General Bill McCollum. McCollum has been underwhelming so far; he remains an engaging public speaker and accomplished politician – but with very little of the shiny patina one expects of Florida’s statewide leader. But the Governor’s veto of SB6 (the education merit/reform bill) was a stick in the eye of Jeb Bush and the Republican Party, and was, effectively, Charlie Crist’s Republican resignation letter. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party would get behind a Crist candidacy for dog catcher at this point.

The last, and most “chic” of his choices would be to run as an independent (technically, “no party affiliation”) in Florida and turn the Senate race into a three-way race. Crist would probably feel bolstered the Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead in that race – but these early polls need to be taken with some caution. First, that current snapshot is devoid of the actual campaign (i.e., how will both Meek and Rubio attack Crist? – both of whom will want to hold onto their voters). Second, how would Crist raise money? (he has raised more than 7 million dollars, but his cash-on-hand is around 2.5 million, which could buy about 2.5 weeks of statewide ad-buys) and how would he put together a staff? (the Republican Party would likely pressure the “bench” – the lower level Town Council members, County Commissioners and such who typically make-up the county-wide election committees, with retribution for helping Charlie). Additionally, with both real established candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, the path for a Crist victory is exceptionally unlikely.

Given these options, if I were Charlie – I would think about leading a university, an energy company, a hedge-fund or some other non-elected office. Time to think outside of the box.

Image problem resolved?

As I noted a while back, the image of Charlie Crist on his website (http://charliecrist.com) showed the reverse image - with Crist's part of his hair on his left side, instead of his usual right. Well, someone at the Crist campaign might be reading this blog - as that issue has now been resolved. Now we all get to see the "right" Charlie.

Charlie in a Three-Way?

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters shows Rubio increasing his lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (now by 23 points), and also shows Rubio ahead of Meek in a two-person general election showdown (by just 4 points). Quinnipiac also polled a three-way race with Crist as an independent against Rubio and Meek and shows Crist actually winning that race (by 2 points).

Crist has vehemently denied that would run as an independent several times – yet today vetoed a major education reform bill that had been championed by Jeb Bush. His veto certainly won no favors among the Republicans – but Crist had already made himself persona non-grata among a growing share of Republicans. In the last several weeks there has been a huge public outcry in Florida among teachers and parents urging the Republican controlled legislature to stop the bill’s passage – and once those efforts failed, to Governor Crist to veto this bill.

The easiest historical corollary for Governor Crist would be look to the Connecticut race for the US Senate in 2006. That year, Ned Lamont (and a push from the extreme of the party) defeated Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But Lieberman then ran as an independent in the general election and defeated the Democratic nominee Lamont and the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in that three-way race.

So if Joe could do it, can Charlie?