What to do now

Wow. Just seven months after unrolling his grassroots insurgency campaign, Marco Rubio has "officially" become the front runner for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rubio leads Crist 47%-44% in a poll of registered Republicans. Ok Marco, you've taken the lead. What are you going to do now?



Option 1. "I'm going to Disney World." Speaker Rubio could declare victory, letting the national anti-incumbent tide and Tea Party purification system propel him to victory in August over Crist and Meek in November. He could play "prevent defense" - playing it safe, not make mistakes, and collect low hanging fruit dollars from around the country. Time to start making staff picks and curtain colors?

Option 2. "Dance with the one that brung ya." Speaker Rubio could keep doing was he has done, traveling around the state, staying aggressive against Governor Crist, and cultivating the image of earnest and consistent outsider.

Ordinarily this is an easy choice. We've all seen football teams fall completely apart trying to protect a lead after having dominated the first three quarters of the game. So option 2 right? Well, one big problem. Don't be too surprised if the newly reformulated party apparatus (and the Governor's vanity) doesn't push Governor Crist out of the race. Not only will Crist not want to lose against Rubio - there are significant grumblings around the state that the Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum is less than inspiring. McCollum's numbers are still ahead of Sink's numbers, but they are softening. This might raise the scenario whereby Crist could plausibly pivot back to the gubernatorial race and find himself wanted, once again, by the Republican Party.

So what should Marco do? If Crist does not bow out of the race, Rubio will likely start feeling more of a brunt of the Governor's financial advantage. So far the attacks have been dueling videos - kind of a YouTube Dis session. Crist might start taking to the airwaves and become a bit more aggressive himself. Rubio, first and foremost, has to be ready to respond in kind. Second, Republicans nationwide have been accused of just being the party of "no." The Republicans have been accused of not being able to offer any views of their own. Well in Speaker Rubio that charge rings fairly hollow. Way back in 2006, Rubio penned a book entitled "100 Innovative Ideas for Florida's Future." Some of these ideas are Florida-specific, but Rubio can't be charged (fairly) with just being a voice of negativity. Rubio needs now to continue making his case for the Republican nomination as he has done. But he also must think a bit more about how to respond to Crist attacks, how his ideas will stack up against Meek in the general election, and how he can translate his ideas for Florida into a framework for governing.

UPDATE: Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times sensing that Rubio is playing "prevent defense."

"Loser of the week-Marco Rubio. At his largest ever news conference with the Florida press last week, a defensive Rubio dodged question after question about his actions as House speaker, about his employment, about high-speed rail, about stimulus, about the state GOP. Strong fundraising and poll numbers have poised him to be the front-runner for the GOP Senate nomination. He'd better ramp up his game as the spotlight grows."