Endorsements

Jeb Bush Jr., son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have come out to endorse Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. Governor Crist has been endorsed by Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and now Lindsay Graham (SC).

Endorsements are more about positioning (Crist to the center and Rubio to the right) than anything meaningful, when the candidates are well-known. Dog-catcher races might be more susceptible to the power of an endorsement, but the U.S. Senate is probably a different story.

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

An early poll

Marco Rubio will have his work cut out for him - not particularly helped by having the State party apparatus endorsing Charlie Crist - if this early poll means anything. According to a poll of 300 Republican voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Sachs firm, showed Rubio with only 18 percent of the vote, with Governor Crist at more than 50 percent of the vote (undecideds at 29 percent, and the margin of error being +-6).

While certainly Rubio would prefer to have done better, most political scientists agree that early polls are predictive of very little. And some of you might remember some also ran named Obama badly trailing Hilary Rodham Clinton in the early polls. What are early polls good for? Not quite "absolutely nothing." Politicians can use these early polls as part of their fundraising mechanism, which can in turn work on name ID, which can in turn improve future polls - which can be quite predictive of winners. But there is a lot of "noise" involved in this line of causation - making these early polls not particularly important.

Blastoff

Ladies and gentlemen - we have blastoff. The Crist candidacy is official.

“Over the last several months I have spoken with many Floridians about the challenges that we face together and the issues affecting our daily lives. Our country is facing the most profound public policy questions in our lifetime – questions relating to the economy, taxes, healthcare, the environment and national security. The answers to these questions will have a lasting impact on the country we love and the nation we will leave to our children and grandchildren. As I have previously said, my decision whether to seek the office of U.S. Senator or re-election as Governor would not be made until after the important work of the Legislature was completed at which time I could reflect on how to best serve the people of this great state. Here in Florida, we’ve shown that when we put people first and work together much can be accomplished, and I intend to bring that same approach to Washington. That is why, after thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate. As Governor, each day I will continue to focus on fighting for all Floridians. And if I am given the honor of serving as their Senator, I will take that fight for the people of this state I love so dearly to the halls of Congress. Thank you and God bless the great state of Florida and the United States of America.”

T-1

And an opening salvo from the Rubio camp, notable only in that Crist has yet to announce.

3, 2, 1...

The countdown to Governor Crist's announcement of his intention to run for the Senate seat now occupied by Senator Mel Martinez is at T-2. According to both his former Chief of Staff and the head of the Republican Party, Tuesday, in Tallahassee, Governor Crist will announce his plans.

Charlie Crist ran for the U.S. Senate once before - back in 1998, as a Republican in a Democratic-Presidential midterm election - and was crushed by (incumbent) Bob Graham 62-38. Crist won just four counties, and barely cracked 25% of the vote in three Democratic strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. But Crist's political skills have come a long way since then. For a really interesting read, check out Steve Bosquet's 2006 piece here, and some speculation about how the Governor might do in the 2010 race here.

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist

Conventional wisdom holds that the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist will win the U.S. Senate race in a walk. Despite the economic turmoil of the State, Governor Crist still enjoys high state-wide polling. While to many this seems unassailable, one method for beating Charlie at this game is not to let him play. To win the Senate seat, he needs to be the nominee of his own party - and that ladies and gentlemen is where the Governor could be vulnerable. Given the Governor's vocal and visible support for President Obama's stimulous package, there may be an exploitable cleavage to the right. In fact, in the latest polling, Governor Crist's negatives were higher among Republicans than among Democrats or Independents. Enter Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House, who, in addition to being a Jeb Bush protege who can draw upon support from Jeb's network, amassed a very conservative voting record in the Florida legislature. And Rubio has now also made a nice investment among the Tea Party crowd that could provide dividends in a Republican primary. His statewide name identification is still low, but that's what his campaign would have to be about: the branding of Marco Rubio. Expect lots of exposure from Speaker Rubio regarding (1) education (Jeb's specialty and 33 of the first 100 ideas from Rubio's book: "100 Innovative Ideas For Florida's Future: A Plan of Action"), (2) the economy (especially taxes, and spending), and (3) Cuba policy.