Waiting on Charlie

While most Republicans will wait for Governor Crist to announce his plans on whether to enter the Senate race in May, one Republican has entered the fray. Dr. Marion Thorpe, who took on (and lost against) Congressman Alcee Hastings for a House run in 2008, has announced his candidacy. Though Thorpe lacks elected office experience (see below for a discussion of amateurs in Congress), Thorpe's bio has plenty of nuggets for the insider politics hopeful. He has been the chief medical officer for Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration and has held leadership positions with city and statewide political committees. His policy platform looks solidly conservative on abortion, the economy, and taxes, and he tacks slightly more moderate position on immigration. It's a plausible candidacy; but like most everyone else - we are still all waiting on Charlie.

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Unknowns

As the primary races begin to shape up, we have had several announcements of who is in, here, here, here, and here, and of course, several announcements of who is out here, here and here. Two of the Known Unknowns appear to be at least mildly positioning themselves to be ready for a Senate run. The "wait and see" approach of Governor Crist has effectively frozen the Republican field for the lesser known names, but we've also seen in recent weeks MSNBC Morning Joe host and former Congressman Joe Scarborough increasing both his Florida bona fides and taking on a sharper partisan tack (largely on his radio show and on his appearance on Meet the Press this past weekend; his daily Morning Joe show continues to be, in my opinion, the single best unbiased and balanced show among all of political television). These are both of our top Known Unknowns - will they or won't they? And maybe, just maybe - would Joe be the one person in Florida who would run in a Republican primary against Charlie?

But in true Rumsfeldian fashion, there are also the Unknown Unknowns - what kinds of things could happen down the road to shake this up even more? Sexual scandals, ethics charges, a political newcomer, and a changing (maybe?) economy are the most likely culprits.