Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Where will Charlie go?
Debate number four has passed without much fanfare. No "rent is too damn high" moments. No "who am I and how did I get here?" treasures. No "and you are no Jack Kennedy" charges. Two weeks from tonight, and it is all said and done. Marco will be a Senator for six years (although with an eye perhaps toward higher office). Meek will have been a party loyalist and will either take a job in the Obama Administration or become a lobbyist. But where does Charlie go? What a colossal fall from grace! He easily could have been governor again, and lined himself up to go after Nelson in 2012. But now what? A man with no party, no office, and a lot of burned bridges. Ouch.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Ladies and Gentlemen, Senator Rubio
There is a steady narrative pumping out of the center and from some disaffected Democratic corners out there right now. That story suggests Kendrick Meek should quit the race and throw his support to Charlie Crist. The logic suggests that even with Rubio pulling 44% of the vote (in the latest Quinnipiac poll), that if one combined the percentages for Crist (30%) and Meek (22%) – that Crist could take that support and defeat Marco Rubio. Crist has picked off a couple of endorsements of some high(ish) profile Palm Beach County Democrats (former Congressman Robert Wexler and long-time County Commissioner Burt Aaronson)* – and several folks are echoing the “Kendrick can’t win” mantra.
The idea that Kendrick can’t win is right. He’s done. The problem is Charlie probably can’t either. He’s almost done. And the reason is that the ballots are done, votes have been cast, and not enough voters enter the voting poll knowing who is “in” and who is “out.” Further, some of Meek’s supporters would simply never ever vote for Charlie Crist – even if he announced that he will caucus with the Democrats (this announcement could be Charlie’s last ditch effort and will likely come sometime next week). Those committed Meek voters may stay home or vote for a different independent (NPA) candidate. Even with Kendrick “dropping out of the race” (or Crist for that matter) – those candidates will still pull a lot of votes, and would likely prevent the other from winning. One cannot simply add together the support for Crist and Meek and suggest that one of them would still topple Rubio.
The Tea Party candidates have had some remarkable successes this year – but those successes can mostly also be explained by an anti-incumbency wave. Since right now both Meek and Crist are elected officials – and Rubio is not, that trend likely means that Rubio will win the Senate race.
*Also, for what it’s worth, I would not mistake the Wexler and Aaronson endorsements as having anything to do with religion and/or race as some may think. Wexler worked quite closely with Crist on the paper-ballot movement a few years back, and Aaronson has been loudly complaining to anyone who would listen (including me at an event where I was speaking) that Meek had not spent enough time in Palm Beach County.
The idea that Kendrick can’t win is right. He’s done. The problem is Charlie probably can’t either. He’s almost done. And the reason is that the ballots are done, votes have been cast, and not enough voters enter the voting poll knowing who is “in” and who is “out.” Further, some of Meek’s supporters would simply never ever vote for Charlie Crist – even if he announced that he will caucus with the Democrats (this announcement could be Charlie’s last ditch effort and will likely come sometime next week). Those committed Meek voters may stay home or vote for a different independent (NPA) candidate. Even with Kendrick “dropping out of the race” (or Crist for that matter) – those candidates will still pull a lot of votes, and would likely prevent the other from winning. One cannot simply add together the support for Crist and Meek and suggest that one of them would still topple Rubio.
The Tea Party candidates have had some remarkable successes this year – but those successes can mostly also be explained by an anti-incumbency wave. Since right now both Meek and Crist are elected officials – and Rubio is not, that trend likely means that Rubio will win the Senate race.
*Also, for what it’s worth, I would not mistake the Wexler and Aaronson endorsements as having anything to do with religion and/or race as some may think. Wexler worked quite closely with Crist on the paper-ballot movement a few years back, and Aaronson has been loudly complaining to anyone who would listen (including me at an event where I was speaking) that Meek had not spent enough time in Palm Beach County.
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