How Conservative is Marco Rubio?

On television this morning on Morning Joe, Governor Charlie Crist appeared to suggest that Speaker Rubio was not really all that conservative - when looking at his record in power. As someone who has looked at Rubio's record in power, Crist will have a tough time making that case.

A reporter recently asked me whether (paraphrasing) “given Florida’s history of electing moderate Senators, what are the chances for someone like Marco Rubio?” As I’ve detailed earlier, political scientists have long evaluated political ideology in terms of numbers – most commonly scaling liberals to moderates to conservatives from -1 to 0 to +1. US Senators from Florida are fairly moderate, overall, but as of late appear to be becoming slightly more extreme. From the 80^th Congress through the 100^th Congress, the average (absolute value) of ideology of the Florida Senators was .141, but from the 101^st through the 111^th Congress, the ideology of the Florida Senators was .340. This difference is partially attributable to the replacement of Lawton Chiles by Connie Mack, and then Bill Nelson’s subsequent replacement of Connie Mack.

Yet what should be noted is that Marco Rubio’s DW-Nominate score places him at at about .700. That certainly places Rubio well to the extreme of any prior recent Florida Senator, and about as extreme as one of Florida’s first senators: Samuel Pasco (D).

How does Rubio compare to the current US Senate? At .700, only three US Senators score as conservative: INHOFE (OK), DEMINT (SC), and COBURN (OK). In the House, there are about 57 House Members who rate more conservative than does Rubio, including the recent winner of the CPAC Straw Poll, Ron Paul (TX) who achieved a DW-Nominate score of 1.348.

I have not yet figured out a way to assess Governor Crist's record on a similar scale, but Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has compiled a list of the Governor's positions that tends to demonstrate a much, much, more moderate record than Speaker Rubio's record. Silver compares Crist's stances to that of Senators Snowe and Collins - the two most liberal Republican Senators in Congress (.045 and .068).

To Debate or Not to Debate

Marco Rubio has announced that he has accepted an offer from Fox News to debate Charlie Crist. The Governor has yet to answer. Since the Governor is down in the polls, one might think he would be eager to have the chance to debate Rubio. Yet what should be noted is that a nationally televised debate in this political climate is rife with problems. The debate would likely only serve to raise the profile for Rubio; despite his leading poll numbers - he probably still has room to grow. What would Crist gain by saying yes? Well he could, perhaps, (1) beat Rubio on the issues, or (2) hope for a debacle (say, like, ink written notes on the hand after chastising the leader of the other party for using a teleprompter).

UPDATE: Governor Crist has accepted an offer for two national debates: March 7th on Meet the Press, and March 28 on Fox News Sunday.

First in for NASCAR... Kendrick Meek

*via the Sun-Sentinel Broward politics blog*

Senate candidate Meek courts NASCAR fans

> Posted by Anthony Man on February 8, 2010 05:10 PM

Kendrick Meek, the South Florida Democrat running for U.S. Senate is going after a vital constituency in a statewide race – north Florida conservatives – by sponsoring a car at Saturday’s NASCAR race in Daytona Beach.

Fans in the stands and watching ESPN2 cable coverage of the event will see Mike Wallace’s #01 race car emblazoned with the “Kendrick Meek for U.S Senate” logo. They’ll also get a pitch on the back of the car to sign up for Meek campaign updates via text message.

And this isn’t just any race. Driver Danica Patrick, the first woman to win an Indy Car race, will make her NASCAR Nationwide Series debut at the race at Daytona International Speedway – virtually guaranteeing high viewership.

Martin J. Sweet, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University’s Honors College, said it’s a savvy attempt to bolster the Meek brand with voters who might ordinarily be more inclined toward Republican Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio.

“Neither Rubio nor Crist particularly ooze that real ‘Bubba’ factor, so Meek can gamble a bit here,” Sweet said. “While in years past the NASCAR crowd might not have been fertile ground for Democrats, the sport’s rapid expansion in popularity coupled with no obvious Republican candidate connection makes the Meek strategy here pretty smart.”

Understanding Polls

Maurice Ferre, former Mayor of Miami, and declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida occupied by George Lemieux, “is touting poll results that show he does almost as well as Meek when matched up against likely Republican candidates.”  The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, shows that when the individuals polled in hypothetical matchups between Governor Crist and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre, or Speaker Rubio and and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre that Ferre faired about as well as Meek, that, in the words of Ferre – that Ferre and Meek are “virtually tied.”

Crist has an image problem

Governor Crist has an image problem. No, not the whole RINO thing. And no, not that other thing. Take a look at the photo on the left. The largest image, with the smiling face on top of the American flag is taken directly from the Governor's campaign website: www.charliecrist.com. The other photos, all taken from other public sources. Notice the difference? Turns out the single main photo of Crist used on his campaign site is the inverse image of Charlie. The hair is, of course, parted on the other side - and you can see that his moles are switched.

Free Fallin'

Charlie Crist is a good boy, loves his mama. Loves Jesus and America too. And now he's free, free fallin'.