Iorio Pros and Cons

The St. Pete Times' Political Editor has the pros and cons of Tampa Bay Mayor Pam Iorio (is that pronounced "Yore-e-o" or "Eyeore-e-o"?) entering the Democratic primary for the Senate race. The assets for her would be capitalizing on the diffusion of support for several South Florida politicians, being the only woman in the race, and being the only candidate from the I-4 corridor. Her lack of demonstrated support for fellow party members and the mismatch between the executive skill set possessed and the legislative skill set needed may hinder her candidacy.

If the race turns on low information voters, Iorio's pros can go a long way. Yet primary voters tend to be better informed and more extreme than general election voters. As the Mayor of a large city, she likely enjoys high name ID in the Tampa region and a recent poll is at least mildly suggestive that her name has filtered beyond the city limits.

Actors, Astronauts, Athletes and Amateurs in Congress

While it is true that the Constitutional qualifications to hold congressional office are quite minimal, there are tried and true paths to the U.S. Capitol. House Members typically have been state legislators, and U.S. Senators have either been a House Member or fabulously wealthy, or both. These individuals not only have experience campaigning, but have already established a network of money and professional staff, and most importantly name identification. Yet despite this tried and true method of ascending to the Hill, there are plenty of people who made their way to Washington with little to no political experience. Consider the most recently defeated House Member from Florida’s 16th District. Congressman Tim Mahoney had never held elective office prior to becoming a Member of Congress. So how did he win? Quite simply, he was in the right place at the right time. Most seasoned Democrats had stayed away from the 2006 race against then-incumbent Mark Foley, largely because he seemed unbeatable. According to noted Congressional scholar (and my former professor) David Canon, that’s sort of a recipe for a political amateur to enter a race; when Foley was undone because of a salacious scandal involving young House Pages – there was Tim Mahoney ready to pick up the pieces and win. And yet despite his once amateur status, he was thought by many to be on his way to a decent House career (until, of course, he was derailed by his own sex scandal).

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.