Race for the U.S. Senate, Florida 2010

A Reversal of Fortunes

2010-11-03T13:34:00.001-04:00

Thank you to the roughly 10,000 readers (er, hits) on this website. I tried to bring to light some aspects of this, perhaps unusual, race for the Senate using a bit of political science. Wow – congratulations to Marco Rubio on running a pretty amazing campaign. I have more to say below, but clearly this was not a coronation type run for the Senate. And my thoughts are also with Kendrick Meek who could not catch a break in this campaign. Just about everything that could go wrong for the guy broke against him, despite his best efforts. And Governor Crist – simply amazing. What a lesson in what not to do! An epic fail for sure.

I started this blog in January 2009, just a few days before President Obama took the reins in office and right after Senator Mel Martinez announced that he would not seek re-election. Kendrick Meek entered the race quite quickly. When Governor Crist was asked how much interest he had in running, Crist responded “Not much.” He should have trusted his instincts then. Dan Gelber put his hat in the ring, only to quit later when he was behind and run for Attorney General. He lost that race too. And most Republicans thought to run all waited on Charlie Crist, including Connie Mack and Bill McCollum. Except one guy – one guy who had just a 13-17% favorability rating – with almost 70% of those polled saying that they had no opinion of Marco Rubio. In April of 2009, Marco Rubio had a conference call with the press and bloggers and tipped his hand that he was running. He aligned himself with the then nascent Tea Party movement, and started on this odyssey that has now been marked with this victory.

After Rubio entered the race, Governor Crist jumped in as well, despite his already high negatives from Republicans. The Republican establishment (notably the State party apparatus and the national Republican Senatorial election committees) backed Crist, including Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and Lindsay Graham (SC). Rubio was left with the also rans (Mike Huckabee) and the extreme (Jim DeMint). Rubio, however, was undaunted by the early polls showing him trailing Crist by 40 points: "We started early; we are still 16 months out. ... We plan to travel everywhere, go anywhere, raise enough money with voters. ... This campaign will come from the bottom up, not from the top down." Despite the bravado, Rubio badly trailed in the money race and then in July 2009, there was a shakeup in the Rubio campaign – where Rubio dropped his campaign manager and top fundraising consultant. I, for one, saw this as a sign that Rubio was just about done.

So what happened next? Mel Martinez did exactly what he said he would not do. He resigned from office early. As Governor, Crist was then charged with appointing Martinez’s successor. He could have appointed himself, but showed at least some restraint there. Or he could have appointed a consensus candidate, a Florida senior statesman: former Governor Bob Martinez, former Secretary of State Jim Smith, former Senator Connie Mack, former Speaker of the House Alan Bense, or former Congressman Clay Shaw. But instead Crist took a gamble and appointed his own former Chief-of-Staff George LeMieux. This was the same time that Congress passed the Obama health-care bill, and as the Tea Party movement gained strength. Rubio expanded his endorsements beyond the extremes of DeMint, Armey, Pat Buchanan, and started hearing from budget stalwarts like Paul Ryan. The County level straw-polls came back one after another with Rubio trouncing the Governor. In races around the country – in Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, candidates who preached a message of fiscal conservatism, limited government, strong national defense, and anti-health care had stunning victories. The local races nationalized, and candidates with the same message as Rubio were starting to win.

By February 2010, Crist was in free fall. Rubio was beating Crist by 12 points. Crist then agreed to debate Marco Rubio – and claimed that Rubio was not conservative enough. Florida voters must have whiplash to recover from the outlandish claims that Crist has made throughout this campaign! So Mr. Crist then got hit with some extreme bills in the State Legislature, including education and abortion. Crist had clearly fallen out of favor with the Republican leadership in the State, and they pushed the Governor hard. Crist thought that if he vetoed these extreme bills that he could then run as an independent, and beat Rubio and Meek in a three-way race. In late April 2010, Crist bolted from the Republican Party and “ran for the people.”

Meek had a hard-luck campaign. Despite being a Democratic centrist (or even slightly conservative), and despite successfully navigating the in-fighting in the Democratic Party (he was Clinton supporter in the ’08 primary, but then got a huge burst of support from the Obama team), he was the second story in Florida. It was pretty difficult to get any air, with both Crist and Rubio in a death-match. And then came along the Hollywood-weird mortgage meltdown tycoon Jeff Greene in a Democratic primary challenge. Along came some grumblings about a developer scandal involving Meek and his mother, and some Dems started to publicly back Charlie Crist. Meek was, however, able to hold on to the AFL-CIO crowd (despite Governor Crist’s plea for an endorsement) and eventually beat Jeff Greene. But it was not until August – just about 10 weeks ago, that Meek could even set his sights squarely on the three-way race. And as of ten weeks ago, running as a Democrat in Florida was not really a great place to be. Just ask Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, Suzanne Kosmas, or Alex Sink.

Governor Crist should have stayed out of this race in the very beginning. And when he was faced with losing the primary, he should have quit the race. But now, he’s done. His flip-flops on policy and personal accusations against Rubio were a disgrace. A once ridiculously popular governor now has no office, no party, and a lot of burned bridges. A truly colossal fall from grace.

Marco Rubio will be one of the more conservative members of the U.S. Senate, and he will even be pushed by some to either run for President or Vice-President – literally as soon as 2012 (remember, Obama was only elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006). From a guy who had no office (having been term-limited out of the House in 2008), no party (well, the establishment was against him) and he will suddenly be the prettiest girl at the dance. Talk about a reversal of fortunes. He ran a great race, and he was in the right place at the right time. But he put himself there, and he weathered some rough patches during his campaign. He certainly benefited from the structural forces of the 2010 race at work here, especially running from the opposition party in a mid-term election. But clearly, not all Republicans around the country won last night. Give full credit here for to Rubio for being largely consistent on message, doing the best he could with limited name ID and money, and not backing away from a challenge - including having the party establishment against him. Yes the comparisons to Obama are probably premature, but they are not irrational. Keep watching this guy.

Thanks for reading. This blog is now over.

From "Political Wire"

2010-11-01T13:58:00.000-04:00

"A GOP Star is Born

The St. Petersburg Times reports that perhaps 'the most sought-after press credential in the country' on Election Night is for Marco Rubio's (R) U.S. Senate campaign party in Florida.

'As of yesterday, the campaign had received requests from 232 media outlets. That includes 35 television cameras (of which 17 are from Florida), network crews from NBC, ABC, FOX, CNN, the BBC, NPR, Univision and Al Arabiya, and 75 members of the foreign press -- radio reporters from the Czech Republic, West Africa, China; TV crews from the Congo, Colombia, Japan, France, Spain; and print reporters from Germany, New Zealand, Argentina and the UK.'

The latest Public Policy Polling survey shows Rubio headed for an easy victory as he leads Gov. Charlie Crist (I), 47% to 30%, with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) at 21%."

Where will Charlie go?

2010-10-19T21:18:00.000-04:00

Debate number four has passed without much fanfare. No "rent is too damn high" moments. No "who am I and how did I get here?" treasures. No "and you are no Jack Kennedy" charges. Two weeks from tonight, and it is all said and done. Marco will be a Senator for six years (although with an eye perhaps toward higher office). Meek will have been a party loyalist and will either take a job in the Obama Administration or become a lobbyist. But where does Charlie go? What a colossal fall from grace! He easily could have been governor again, and lined himself up to go after Nelson in 2012. But now what? A man with no party, no office, and a lot of burned bridges. Ouch.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Senator Rubio

2010-10-13T12:39:00.001-04:00

There is a steady narrative pumping out of the center and from some disaffected Democratic corners out there right now. That story suggests Kendrick Meek should quit the race and throw his support to Charlie Crist. The logic suggests that even with Rubio pulling 44% of the vote (in the latest Quinnipiac poll), that if one combined the percentages for Crist (30%) and Meek (22%) – that Crist could take that support and defeat Marco Rubio. Crist has picked off a couple of endorsements of some high(ish) profile Palm Beach County Democrats (former Congressman Robert Wexler and long-time County Commissioner Burt Aaronson)* – and several folks are echoing the “Kendrick can’t win” mantra.

The idea that Kendrick can’t win is right. He’s done. The problem is Charlie probably can’t either. He’s almost done. And the reason is that the ballots are done, votes have been cast, and not enough voters enter the voting poll knowing who is “in” and who is “out.” Further, some of Meek’s supporters would simply never ever vote for Charlie Crist – even if he announced that he will caucus with the Democrats (this announcement could be Charlie’s last ditch effort and will likely come sometime next week). Those committed Meek voters may stay home or vote for a different independent (NPA) candidate. Even with Kendrick “dropping out of the race” (or Crist for that matter) – those candidates will still pull a lot of votes, and would likely prevent the other from winning. One cannot simply add together the support for Crist and Meek and suggest that one of them would still topple Rubio.

The Tea Party candidates have had some remarkable successes this year – but those successes can mostly also be explained by an anti-incumbency wave. Since right now both Meek and Crist are elected officials – and Rubio is not, that trend likely means that Rubio will win the Senate race.

*Also, for what it’s worth, I would not mistake the Wexler and Aaronson endorsements as having anything to do with religion and/or race as some may think. Wexler worked quite closely with Crist on the paper-ballot movement a few years back, and Aaronson has been loudly complaining to anyone who would listen (including me at an event where I was speaking) that Meek had not spent enough time in Palm Beach County.

Ballot Design

2010-09-16T11:10:00.001-04:00

Though for all intents and purposes - this is a three person race, Governor Crist will appear ninth on the ballot. Because state law gives the partisans the top spots on the ballot, and specifically the first spot on the ballot to the party occupying the governorship, Marco Rubio will appear first on the ballot, followed by Kendrick Meek. Then will come the candidates from the other parties (Libertarian, etc.), before a "No Party Affiliation" candidate will appear. Governor Crist says "It's an issue, obviously."

So - is it an issue? Does ballot position or ballot design play a determinative factor in elections? Many have long suspected that the ballot design in Palm Beach County in 2000 - the "butterfly ballot" designed by Therese Lepore, was determinative in the 2000 Presidential election (the ballot may have confused some voters who intended to vote for Gore, but instead voted for Buchanan - and giving a margin of victory to Bush for the State of Florida and consequently enough electoral college votes for the win). There are other anecdotes as well, but what about systematic testing? Michael Alvarez at Cal Tech is probably the leading scholar on the issue. Alvarez identifies several different issues including name order, the amount of information provided (name, party, incumbency, occupation, etc.), ordering of races in an election (attendant issues with undervoting for later races), voting instructions, and language and images. In short, there are a host of factors related to ballot design that might change a few votes in an election. While most races are decided by larger margins - in close races, the design of the ballot could be determinative for the race. While the Governor is right that ballot design is an issue, whether this race will be close enough to be affected by the ballot design remains to be seen.

The Election Returns

2010-08-24T20:28:00.000-04:00

Greetings all. There will more postings, once this whole primary gets sorted out tonight. Of course, Governor Crist and Speaker Rubio are not in a ballot battle today – but, rest assured, they are watching the returns closely. A Greene win (unlikely) and Crist takes a lot of Democrats with him (improbably now to the Senate). A Meek win, and Crist likely loses some Democrats (sending Rubio to a much easier victory).

For the Democratic primary election returns see here. For other Florida returns, see here. And for all other national returns tonight, see here.

UPDATE: CNN is already predicting that Meek will win. Paraphrasing the immortal words of James Carville (albeit in reference to Ross Perot) - "we may have just witnessed the biggest single act of masturbation in the history of the world." Money well spent Jeff.

Incumbency and the Three Way Race

2010-06-09T13:56:00.000-04:00

Incumbents have huge advantages over challengers in American elections – both owing to the factors why voters select particular candidates (name ID) and how campaigns work (position taking, credit claiming). While Governor Crist is not an incumbent in the race for the US Senate seat in Florida – his position as Governor gives him many of those same advantages. In recent weeks Crist has been capitalizing upon his position (and the free media attention) in attempts to secure the Senate seat. From his high profile veto of the Teacher Merit bill to the signing of the Condo Bill to what will, almost certainly, be his veto of the Abortion Ultrasound bill.

While all of this looks good for Charlie, the particulars of the three-way race also make this a difficult road. In the last twenty four hours Crist has been attacked by Rubio (pro-life) and by Meek (pro-choice) over the abortion bill. To Rubio and his followers, Crist is another opportunist turn-coat who does not really value the sanctity of life. To Meek, Crist is an opportunist who has long turned his back on women seeking an abortion. Well, at least Rubio and Meek can agree on something, if just partially.

Good news, bad news, and the Solomonic compromise

2010-05-23T11:05:00.000-04:00

The good news greeting Charlie Crist is another poll showing him slightly ahead of Marco Rubio and significantly in front of Kendrick Meek in the Senate race. Of the three post-independent announcement three-way polls, Crist has been ahead in two and Rubio has been ahead in the other. The bad news for Crist is that his gamble to go in front of the AFL-CIO and publicly ask for their endorsement failed. The AFL-CIO is endorsing Meek. Some sting might come off as the teacher's union "split" their endorsement between Meek and Crist. What does that mean? Well getting an endorsement is useful for fundraising and organized efforts at getting out the vote. Crist may well capture some AFL-CIO union members votes - regardless of the endorsement, but he can now "spin" the teacher's union split endorsement (as can Meek) in his fundraising pleas and can try to use the organization for GOTV efforts.

Dems for Crist and the Killing Fields

2010-05-18T09:25:00.001-04:00

Big weekend: The Miami Herald runs a story about Kendrick Meek, his mother (also a former Member of Congress), an aide, and a developer that could smell trouble. Some Palm Beach County Democrats are getting on the Crist train. And a new poll shows Rubio regaining his lead in the three way Senate race, after the Crist independent announcement momentum evaporated.

The takeaway: the Meek issues in Palm Beach are largely related to his lack of campaigning in the County, which led to several bruised egos among some of the County political players. People want to feel important – even if they are not. The Greene candidacy isn’t entirely unrelated to either Meek’s lack of progress in Palm Beach and to the possibility of a Meek scandal – but isn’t really catching on among Democrats who think Crist is a better deal than losing to Rubio. Crist’s real hope at this point is to start peeling away the Democratic voters in South Florida (what Republicans have long referred to as “the killing fields” – as Democrats have typically been able to put up gaudy numbers in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach.

I am on record that I think Crist maxes out around 40% of the vote, but I think he will probably be closer to 30% by the time it’s all over – as long as Meek stays in the race. That seemed fairly certain just a few weeks ago, and while still the most likely scenario – it is no longer a sure thing.

Is Meek not handsome enough?

2010-05-06T13:20:00.000-04:00

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart

Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c

American Apparently

www.thedailyshow.com

Daily Show Full Episodes

Political Humor

Tea Party

One cleared primary, one contested primary

2010-04-30T09:20:00.000-04:00

Just as the Governor moved out of the Republican primary, setting up a chic three-way Senate race, political newcomer and real estate billionaire Jeff Greene looks to be entering the Democratic primary. He is being advised by Joe Trippi (former advisor to Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale, Gary Hart, and Howard Dean - all four guys who were never elected President) and pollster Doug Schoen (who polled for both President and Hillary Clinton).

Greene made his most recent oodles of money (and he had plenty before) betting against the sub-prime mortgage market (particularly the two-year ARMs in California and Nevada), and has surrounded himself with the Hollywood weird (Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss, and Mike Tyson all get a mention in this Forbes magazine interview).

Expect significant push-back from the Democratic Party. Meek has not been overwhelming, but he has been operating within the Crist-Rubio soap-opera for the last year and party folks had been waiting for the end of that saga to start making headway in the electorate. This guy can't seem to catch a break.

Welcome to Florida folks: hanging chads, Bush v. Gore, Mark Foley, Tim Mahoney, Charlie Crist, and now Oliver Stone, Heidi Fleiss and Mike Tyson. Truly amazing.

Populism and a Broadside Attack on Parties

2010-04-30T08:45:00.001-04:00

As expected, Governor Crist announced on Thursday that he will continue his race for the U.S. Senate by switching to "no party affiliation." You can watch his constant uttering of "people, people, people" and see his broadside attack on political parties below.

As both partisanship in Congress increases, and voter identification with political parties wanes - Crist's line of attack here makes some sense. Political scientists tend to discuss political parties, much like the media and other interest groups, in that each are links between government and the electorate. They can mobilize the citizenry to establish policy preferences, and serve to communicate between the government and electorate. They are also quite useful for to recruit candidates and support compliant representatives (we think of this as "mobilization"). In this capacity they serve both an organizational component, and a financial one. And parties are quite useful in crafting messages and helping to establish an agenda (we think of this as "communication").

Parties today, however, have become somewhat less important (although not really "not important"). Overall, the communication role can also be filled by television, and the mobilization role can be filled by interest groups. The questions for Governor Crist - can he use his cash on hand and fundraising skill to use television effectively? And will the teachers and the Seminole Tribe be effective at mobilization? Filling his staff with skilled professionals and continuing his fundraising are questionable.

Countdown 2-1...

2010-04-28T09:58:00.000-04:00

Governor Crist will announce on Thursday, April 29, his intentions regarding his participation in the 2010 Senate race. If he runs, as now widely expected (and what will likely fail) as an independent, expect to hear a mixture of post-partisan and populism: "I didn't leave the party. The party left me." and "I represent the people." You can take the quintessential cliched man out of the Republican Party, but you can't take the quintessential cliches out of Charlie.

Charlie's Choice

2010-04-27T09:16:00.000-04:00

As the April 30 “no party affiliation” deadline approaches, according to most observers, Governor Crist faces three choices:

(1) soldier on in the primary against Rubio

(2) gracefully withdraw from this race, and set his sights on a Bill - either:

a. McCollum for Governor

b. Nelson for Senator in 2012

(3) attempt to run for the Senate seat with no party affiliation

These are all poor choices for Charlie; at this point he must only be thinking about “satisficing” rather than “optimizing.”

Should the Governor continue to run against Rubio in the Republican primary, the trajectory is not kind to Charlie. Not only has Rubio been pulling way in front in the polls, but he’s been a fundraising phenomenon and has expanded his endorsement base from the quixotic ideologues to the very real mainstream of the Republican Party. Absent a complete Rubio meltdown (e.g., criminal charges, sex scandal), this is no path the US Senate for the Governor. And I mean “complete” meltdown – my read on the ethics issue, is that this is really no issue at all. It is just not resonating with the voters. Sorry Charlie.

Another idea for the Governor would be to withdraw from the Republican primary against Rubio and enter a different race – but still as a Republican. The Governor could simply train his sights on Senator Nelson for the 2012 race, and barely have to change a word of his campaign literature. Or the Governor could try to keep the office he has – running in what would likely be a contested primary against the current Attorney General Bill McCollum. McCollum has been underwhelming so far; he remains an engaging public speaker and accomplished politician – but with very little of the shiny patina one expects of Florida’s statewide leader. But the Governor’s veto of SB6 (the education merit/reform bill) was a stick in the eye of Jeb Bush and the Republican Party, and was, effectively, Charlie Crist’s Republican resignation letter. It’s hard to imagine that the Republican Party would get behind a Crist candidacy for dog catcher at this point.

The last, and most “chic” of his choices would be to run as an independent (technically, “no party affiliation”) in Florida and turn the Senate race into a three-way race. Crist would probably feel bolstered the Quinnipiac poll showing him ahead in that race – but these early polls need to be taken with some caution. First, that current snapshot is devoid of the actual campaign (i.e., how will both Meek and Rubio attack Crist? – both of whom will want to hold onto their voters). Second, how would Crist raise money? (he has raised more than 7 million dollars, but his cash-on-hand is around 2.5 million, which could buy about 2.5 weeks of statewide ad-buys) and how would he put together a staff? (the Republican Party would likely pressure the “bench” – the lower level Town Council members, County Commissioners and such who typically make-up the county-wide election committees, with retribution for helping Charlie). Additionally, with both real established candidates from the Democratic and Republican parties, the path for a Crist victory is exceptionally unlikely.

Given these options, if I were Charlie – I would think about leading a university, an energy company, a hedge-fund or some other non-elected office. Time to think outside of the box.

Image problem resolved?

2010-04-18T21:15:00.000-04:00

As I noted a while back, the image of Charlie Crist on his website (http://charliecrist.com) showed the reverse image - with Crist's part of his hair on his left side, instead of his usual right. Well, someone at the Crist campaign might be reading this blog - as that issue has now been resolved. Now we all get to see the "right" Charlie.

Charlie in a Three-Way?

2010-04-15T17:20:00.000-04:00

The latest Quinnipiac poll of Florida voters shows Rubio increasing his lead over Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (now by 23 points), and also shows Rubio ahead of Meek in a two-person general election showdown (by just 4 points). Quinnipiac also polled a three-way race with Crist as an independent against Rubio and Meek and shows Crist actually winning that race (by 2 points).

Crist has vehemently denied that would run as an independent several times – yet today vetoed a major education reform bill that had been championed by Jeb Bush. His veto certainly won no favors among the Republicans – but Crist had already made himself persona non-grata among a growing share of Republicans. In the last several weeks there has been a huge public outcry in Florida among teachers and parents urging the Republican controlled legislature to stop the bill’s passage – and once those efforts failed, to Governor Crist to veto this bill.

The easiest historical corollary for Governor Crist would be look to the Connecticut race for the US Senate in 2006. That year, Ned Lamont (and a push from the extreme of the party) defeated Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary. But Lieberman then ran as an independent in the general election and defeated the Democratic nominee Lamont and the Republican nominee Alan Schlesinger in that three-way race.

So if Joe could do it, can Charlie?

Probably not. In the 2006 Connecticut race, Lieberman turned that race into a two person race – Lamont versus Lieberman, round 2. The Republican candidate routinely polled at less than 10% of the vote, and Lieberman was able to capture 33% of the Democratic vote, 54% of the Independent vote, and 70% of the Republican vote. It’s pretty unlikely that Crist could capture 70 percent of Democratic vote in Florida with a viable Democratic candidate (the thought that the DelBoca Vista crowd would suddenly embrace Chain Gang Charlie strains credulity), or that he would be able to keep even 1/3 of Republicans in light of the electric Rubio campaign.

If Crist decides to run as an independent, he has until April 30 to make that choice. Under Florida law, Crist would have to change his party affiliation to make it possible. Stay tuned...

And the winner is...

2010-03-29T10:46:00.000-04:00

Kendrick Meek. The first debate between Governor Crist and Speaker Rubio had been much anticipated, but probably resulted in an unlikely winner: the Democratic nominee (likely Meek). Certainly today both Crist and Rubio will declare that each "won" the debate (and for what it's worth, some of the national press and the local folks here and here believe, as I do, that Rubio performed better). But what is winning? The real winner is the person who receives more votes because of the debate. That "because of" is a pretty difficult standard - largely because there are so many other causal factors at work in voting for a candidate that putting much on a debate is difficult. What can usually be gained from a debate is building Name ID throughout the electorate. It's probably a stretch to think that Governor Crist could really increase his Name ID. His problem is that voters know him, and don't particularly like him. Rubio, despite his budding nationwide reputation (all sorts of "hail the new future of the Republican Party" ideas surrounding Rubio), could stand to gain on Name ID in Florida. But the problem is that Rubio is already winning, and whether he receives 50.1% of the vote or, more likely, puts up some gaudy numbers against Crist, he still wins. And once he wins, he has to face the Democratic nominee - who is likely Kendrick Meek. Yet Rubio often served as a punching bag yesterday for Crist during the debate, undergoing a near constant personal assault. Crist not only tried to tar Rubio with facts (use of a RPOF credit card for personal expenses that were reimbursed and some double billing on airline tickets) - but Crist recklessly put out speculative charges that he (Crist) kept saying that even he (Crist) did not know if they were true (related to tax returns). Who can benefit here? Meek. Meek can follow the fruitful trails led by the Governor and try to avoid Crist's pitfalls.

The Latest Poll, in Perspective

2010-03-09T15:00:00.000-05:00

Going Negative

2010-03-08T12:08:00.000-05:00

Marco’s from Miami. Charlie hugged Barack. Kendrick hasn’t returned Rangel’s money. Just the latest volleys in what might seem like the season of negative campaigning in the Race for Senate. Yet what should be noted is that (1) negative information about policies, as opposed to personhood, can provide valuable information to voters, and (2) negative campaigning can actually increase voter turnout.

What Rubio’s Senate tenure might look like probably has nothing to do with being from Miami. That cynical and ugly tactic from the Crist camp is the classic smear. See Rubio is slick, because he’s from Miami – like that Scarface character. The Governor’s embrace of the President, while similar, in that it tries to create an association – actually has a policy basis. See Crist will embrace Obama’s policies, because he’s actually embraced Obama. The Ferre accusation leveled at Meek is a little bit more mixed. Ferre is clearly trying to smear Meek by tying him to the tax evasion issues surrounding Rangel – but this is actually an ongoing issue for politicians (what is to be done with “tainted” money?) and one that has spurred other elected representatives to get rid of Rangel money.

When political scientists have investigated the effects of negative campaigning, it turns out to be a double-edged sword. Some amounts of negative campaigning actually increase voter turnout, as partisans, in particular, tend to salivate at the red meat spectacle. But as the amount of negative campaigning keeps expanding, turnout can start to get depressed as independents, in particular, tend to avert their eyes (and votes) when the mud really gets slung. That’s why in a primary, especially a closed primary state like Florida, it makes all sorts of sense to go negative during a primary as primary voters tend to be quite partisan. But in a general election the vitriolic and bombastic tone should really only be used if one wants to dampen turnout (i.e., a more extreme candidate looking to turnout the base).

How Conservative is Marco Rubio?

2010-02-22T12:42:00.002-05:00

On television this morning on Morning Joe, Governor Charlie Crist appeared to suggest that Speaker Rubio was not really all that conservative - when looking at his record in power. As someone who has looked at Rubio's record in power, Crist will have a tough time making that case.

A reporter recently asked me whether (paraphrasing) “given Florida’s history of electing moderate Senators, what are the chances for someone like Marco Rubio?” As I’ve detailed earlier, political scientists have long evaluated political ideology in terms of numbers – most commonly scaling liberals to moderates to conservatives from -1 to 0 to +1. US Senators from Florida are fairly moderate, overall, but as of late appear to be becoming slightly more extreme. From the 80^th Congress through the 100^th Congress, the average (absolute value) of ideology of the Florida Senators was .141, but from the 101^st through the 111^th Congress, the ideology of the Florida Senators was .340. This difference is partially attributable to the replacement of Lawton Chiles by Connie Mack, and then Bill Nelson’s subsequent replacement of Connie Mack.

Yet what should be noted is that Marco Rubio’s DW-Nominate score places him at at about .700. That certainly places Rubio well to the extreme of any prior recent Florida Senator, and about as extreme as one of Florida’s first senators: Samuel Pasco (D).

How does Rubio compare to the current US Senate? At .700, only three US Senators score as conservative: INHOFE (OK), DEMINT (SC), and COBURN (OK). In the House, there are about 57 House Members who rate more conservative than does Rubio, including the recent winner of the CPAC Straw Poll, Ron Paul (TX) who achieved a DW-Nominate score of 1.348.

I have not yet figured out a way to assess Governor Crist's record on a similar scale, but Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com has compiled a list of the Governor's positions that tends to demonstrate a much, much, more moderate record than Speaker Rubio's record. Silver compares Crist's stances to that of Senators Snowe and Collins - the two most liberal Republican Senators in Congress (.045 and .068).

To Debate or Not to Debate

2010-02-10T00:01:00.084-05:00

Marco Rubio has announced that he has accepted an offer from Fox News to debate Charlie Crist. The Governor has yet to answer. Since the Governor is down in the polls, one might think he would be eager to have the chance to debate Rubio. Yet what should be noted is that a nationally televised debate in this political climate is rife with problems. The debate would likely only serve to raise the profile for Rubio; despite his leading poll numbers - he probably still has room to grow. What would Crist gain by saying yes? Well he could, perhaps, (1) beat Rubio on the issues, or (2) hope for a debacle (say, like, ink written notes on the hand after chastising the leader of the other party for using a teleprompter).

UPDATE: Governor Crist has accepted an offer for two national debates: March 7th on Meet the Press, and March 28 on Fox News Sunday.

The problem is that debates rarely turn on the substance. Famously in the 1960 Presidential debate, different audiences had different perceptions of the winner. The radio audience who had only heard the debate mainly believed that Nixon "won" the debate, but the television audience that also saw the debate mainly believed Kennedy won. The point is that the medium, presentation, and intangibles can matter a great deal. Think about Dukakis' feeble response to a horrific hypothetical about his wife in the 1988 Presidential campaign. His anti-death penalty response was not alarming to anyone who knew anything about Dukakis' stand on the issue of the death penalty - but his emotions, or rather lack thereof, doomed him. Crist could hope for a major "zinger" like Reagan's "There he goes again," or Bensten's "Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy." But just as possible is adding to the litany of the major debate failures: Ford's lack of knowledge of Eastern Europe, Bush (41) looking at his watch, Gore sighing, etc.

The one saving grace for Crist. Consider how the expectations for Bush (43) were so low during the 2000 campaign that in his debates against Gore, the issues hardly seemed to matter. When Bush largely held his own against Gore, that provided the media story. I'm not sure that the expectations for Crist in a debate against Rubio are comparable, but if he wants to bank on an expectations story - have at it. Otherwise, a polite "no thank you" is probably forthcoming.

First in for NASCAR... Kendrick Meek

2010-02-09T08:10:00.000-05:00

*via the Sun-Sentinel Broward politics blog*

Senate candidate Meek courts NASCAR fans

> Posted by Anthony Man on February 8, 2010 05:10 PM

Kendrick Meek, the South Florida Democrat running for U.S. Senate is going after a vital constituency in a statewide race – north Florida conservatives – by sponsoring a car at Saturday’s NASCAR race in Daytona Beach.

Fans in the stands and watching ESPN2 cable coverage of the event will see Mike Wallace’s #01 race car emblazoned with the “Kendrick Meek for U.S Senate” logo. They’ll also get a pitch on the back of the car to sign up for Meek campaign updates via text message.

And this isn’t just any race. Driver Danica Patrick, the first woman to win an Indy Car race, will make her NASCAR Nationwide Series debut at the race at Daytona International Speedway – virtually guaranteeing high viewership.

Martin J. Sweet, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University’s Honors College, said it’s a savvy attempt to bolster the Meek brand with voters who might ordinarily be more inclined toward Republican Senate candidates Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio.

“Neither Rubio nor Crist particularly ooze that real ‘Bubba’ factor, so Meek can gamble a bit here,” Sweet said. “While in years past the NASCAR crowd might not have been fertile ground for Democrats, the sport’s rapid expansion in popularity coupled with no obvious Republican candidate connection makes the Meek strategy here pretty smart.”

Meek is giving up his Miami-based House seat, which includes part of South Broward, to seek the Democratic Senate nomination in the August primary.

His press secretary, Adam Sharon, said the one-time sponsorship is aimed at helping introduce himself to a different part of the electorate. “It’s introducing himself and having others learn more about him. It’s a large venue to have that conversation.”

Sharon said the sponsorship allows Meek to show the kind of voters who are NASCAR fans that he’s like them in his values and approach to family.

“NASCAR promotes a family affair – a family experience – at their races, and he’ll be there with his family at the race,” he said.

“What is a NASCAR Nation fan? In many ways he [Meek] fits the profile. He’s former law enforcement, a former state trooper. He’s a sportsman. He’s a hunter. He fishes. He’s a gun owner. Many of those elements are part of who he is and who he’s been his whole life.”

Anyone who donated at least $5 on Meek’s campaign website by 5 p.m. Monday was entered in a contest for a pit pass. The winner gets to watch the race close to the action with the Meek family.

And Donors who contribute $25 get a Kendrick Meek "Pit Crew" t-shirt.

Sharon said the event is aimed at building the candidate’s name and image and not as a fundraising device.

While prices vary, top level NASCAR Nationwide teams typically command $100,000 to $125,000 for a one-race paint scheme, but Meek might have paid in the $25,000 to $50,000 range.

Sharon declined to say how much the campaign paid for the one-time lead sponsorship until the organization files its next report detailing contributions and expenditures. That isn’t due until April.

“We won’t say now. It’s worth it. It was just a policy, we said we’re not going to talk about the expenditure,” he said. “We’re finding that it’s proving worthwhile.”

Besides getting Meek’s name before fans at the track and on cable tv, the move is generating media attention.

The communications director for the arm of the Republican Party responsible for promoting its party’s Senate candidates, had this reaction to Meek’s sponsorship on Twitter: “Steering hard left.”

It’s not an entirely new for Democrats to shore up their conservative bona fides with NASCAR sponsorships – but it doesn’t always work.

Democrat Mark Warner ran the “Warner for Governor” Ford at a 2001 NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series during his successful campaign for Virginia chief executive.
As a candidate for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination, then-U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, D-Fla., sponsored a truck in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series. The Bob Graham Ford won a race in Kansas City, but Graham lost the race for the nomination.

And in 2003, then-North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley was driving a Winston Cup race car at a charity event. He crashed into a retaining wall at 120 mph. He was unhurt – and was re-elected in 2004.

Sun Sentinel Sports Business Writer Sarah Talalay contributed to this report.

Understanding Polls

2010-02-05T10:45:00.001-05:00

Maurice Ferre, former Mayor of Miami, and declared candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat from Florida occupied by George Lemieux, “is touting poll results that show he does almost as well as Meek when matched up against likely Republican candidates.” The poll, conducted by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates, shows that when the individuals polled in hypothetical matchups between Governor Crist and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre, or Speaker Rubio and and either Congressman Meek or Mayor Ferre that Ferre faired about as well as Meek, that, in the words of Ferre – that Ferre and Meek are “virtually tied.”

“If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Charlie Crist, the Republican and Kendrick Meek, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”

	All Voters	GOP	Democrat	Independent
Crist	47	69	26	55
Meek	29	10	53	17
Undecided	24	22	21	28

“If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Charlie Crist, the Republican and Maurice Ferre, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”

	All Voters	GOP	Democrat	Independent
Crist	49	68	31	54
Ferre	27	9	49	19
Undecided	24	23	20	27

“If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Marco Rubio, the Republican and Kendrick Meek, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”

	All Voters	GOP	Democrat	Independent
Rubio	42	75	12	45
Meek	30	5	60	16
Undecided	28	20	28	39

“If the election for U.S. Senator were held today and the candidates were (ROTATE) Marco Rubio, the Republican and Maurice Ferre, the Democrat, for whom would you vote?”

	All Voters	GOP	Democrat	Independent
Rubio	43	75	16	42
Ferre	27	4	54	20
Undecided	29	21	31	38

Ferre is, more or less, right. The difference between Meek and Ferre is about two percentage points, and that is less than the margin of error (3.5%). This was a poll of “800 likely voters polled between Jan 27, 2010 and Jan 28, 2010.”

I like this poll quite a bit (from what I can tell here) – and not for the results. But some things to note for consumers of polls (this will be old hat for my faculty friends, connoisseurs of Nate Silver’s website, and (hopefully) my former students). Polling largely comes down to achieving a “good” sample of the population, asking fair questions, and making reasonable interpretations of the data. Is this a good sample? Well, the population under study is the people who will vote in the general election in November 2010. This poll uses “likely voters” – which is, by and large, a euphemism for “voted in the last election.” Since past behavior is a pretty good indication of past behavior, the likely voter is the most common route here. When elections suggest (say as they did in ’08 with Obama) that new voters could be important (voters who were under the age of 18 in 2004 could not be counted among “likely voters” in 2008), some adjustments need to be made. These adjustments occur with what is called “weighting.” Weighting the data effectively means different multipliers are used on sub-samples of the data in making projections about the whole. This often happens when the sub-sample numbers do not reflect the relative sub-sample group expected in the full population under study. So, for example, if we expect that 20% of the electorate in November will be Cuban, and our sub-sample Cuban population is only 10% of the sample – we effectively double-count those numbers to account for the small sub-sample population. Alternatively, if the sample wound up being 60% women, and we expected women to be 50% of the voting population, we would discount the sub-sample population by 1/6. What all of this should say is that it is really important to get the sample right. And by “right” – we mean free from systematic bias or error. If we polled people only at night, individuals who work at night would not be part of the sample – AND – if people who work at night vote differently than people who work during the day (or don’t work), we would have a problem. Thus we typically want what is called a “random” sample. To get a perfectly random sample, we would have a giant database of all possible voters and then use a random number generator to get the “right” names, and then contact those people. We can’t really do that – but we can do things like “rdd” or use random digit dialing to call people. We can then ask qualifying questions, such as “did you vote for any Presidential candidate in 2008?” and then only include the “yes” answers in the poll. I can’t tell here exactly how this survey crew randomized their sample, but there are some other indicia of quality here. Notice in the question wording the insertion of (ROTATE)? What that means is that the person who asked the question of the person being polled would change around the order of the names in the question. This is one way to guard against things like a “response set bias” – when individuals tend to answer in a particular way, largely affected by the framing of the question. This is an issue with referenda on ballots; voters tend to vote “yes” more often than “no” – regardless of the substance. So that the polling group rotated the order here is a pretty good sign that the firm is thinking about the right issues. I also like the large number of individuals polled (800) and the low margin of error 3.5%. The sample size and the margin of error work together (along with confidence level which is not reported here, but the social science standard is 95%). In effect, if the keep one of the three constant (sample size, margin of error, confidence level), the other two move together. That is to say, if we keep the confidence level the same, by increasing the sample size (to a point), the margin of error shrinks. What all of this means is that if we conducted the poll twenty times, using the same randomization techniques and the same questions, we would expect that 19 out of 20 times (95%), the estimates of candidate support would only vary by 3.5% from the estimates listed above. So we are reasonably sure that there is very little difference between Meek and Ferre in how they poll against either Crist or Rubio. That might not be enough confidence, or too much margin of error, if one were experimenting with a new drug for organ rejection in transplants, but if one is simple trying to figure out how to run a political campaign (and appeal to donors), these results are pretty good for Ferre.

Crist has an image problem

2010-02-03T11:42:00.000-05:00

Governor Crist has an image problem. No, not the whole RINO thing. And no, not that other thing. Take a look at the photo on the left. The largest image, with the smiling face on top of the American flag is taken directly from the Governor's campaign website: www.charliecrist.com. The other photos, all taken from other public sources. Notice the difference? Turns out the single main photo of Crist used on his campaign site is the inverse image of Charlie. The hair is, of course, parted on the other side - and you can see that his moles are switched.

Ok, okay - not a big deal. Some web designer got cute. Sure someone might make some hay out of it ("which side is he on?" or "moves from right to left") - but there are more pressing reasons for voters to vote for or against a candidate. But what is pretty interesting is how much information is actually conveyed in an image. Political scientists, psychologists, and others have been studying what information is conveyed to voters by virtue of images alone. As it turns out, image matters quite a bit. About 70% of the time in a general election, perception of "competency" from a photograph is a good proxy for determining the winner of the election. More beautiful candidates - and this holds true especially for women - also tend to win an increased share of the vote. And even simple college yearbook photographs can be used to determine, with somewhat surprising accuracy, whether the individual is a Democrat or a Republican. For the sake of comparison, here is a similar composite of Speaker Rubio. Which one is more competent? Which one is more beautiful? Which one is a Republican?

Free Fallin'

2010-02-02T09:06:00.000-05:00

Charlie Crist is a good boy, loves his mama. Loves Jesus and America too. And now he's free, free fallin'.

In the latest Rasmussen poll for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate, Marco Rubio now holds a 12 point advantage over Charlie Crist: 49-37. This is a fairly stunning fall for the Governor who last April 2009 enjoyed a 68% approval rating from Republicans (and 66% of Democrats and 68% of Independents), and, as the chart below shows that as recently as August 2009, Crist commanded more than half of the Republicans polled. The Republican primary is not until August 2010 - so the typical cautionary tales apply here - but, wow.

What to do now

2010-01-26T07:12:00.000-05:00

Wow. Just seven months after unrolling his grassroots insurgency campaign, Marco Rubio has "officially" become the front runner for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate. In the latest Quinnipiac poll, Rubio leads Crist 47%-44% in a poll of registered Republicans. Ok Marco, you've taken the lead. What are you going to do now?

Option 1. "I'm going to Disney World." Speaker Rubio could declare victory, letting the national anti-incumbent tide and Tea Party purification system propel him to victory in August over Crist and Meek in November. He could play "prevent defense" - playing it safe, not make mistakes, and collect low hanging fruit dollars from around the country. Time to start making staff picks and curtain colors?

Option 2. "Dance with the one that brung ya." Speaker Rubio could keep doing was he has done, traveling around the state, staying aggressive against Governor Crist, and cultivating the image of earnest and consistent outsider.

Ordinarily this is an easy choice. We've all seen football teams fall completely apart trying to protect a lead after having dominated the first three quarters of the game. So option 2 right? Well, one big problem. Don't be too surprised if the newly reformulated party apparatus (and the Governor's vanity) doesn't push Governor Crist out of the race. Not only will Crist not want to lose against Rubio - there are significant grumblings around the state that the Republican gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum is less than inspiring. McCollum's numbers are still ahead of Sink's numbers, but they are softening. This might raise the scenario whereby Crist could plausibly pivot back to the gubernatorial race and find himself wanted, once again, by the Republican Party.

So what should Marco do? If Crist does not bow out of the race, Rubio will likely start feeling more of a brunt of the Governor's financial advantage. So far the attacks have been dueling videos - kind of a YouTube Dis session. Crist might start taking to the airwaves and become a bit more aggressive himself. Rubio, first and foremost, has to be ready to respond in kind. Second, Republicans nationwide have been accused of just being the party of "no." The Republicans have been accused of not being able to offer any views of their own. Well in Speaker Rubio that charge rings fairly hollow. Way back in 2006, Rubio penned a book entitled "100 Innovative Ideas for Florida's Future." Some of these ideas are Florida-specific, but Rubio can't be charged (fairly) with just being a voice of negativity. Rubio needs now to continue making his case for the Republican nomination as he has done. But he also must think a bit more about how to respond to Crist attacks, how his ideas will stack up against Meek in the general election, and how he can translate his ideas for Florida into a framework for governing.

UPDATE: Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times sensing that Rubio is playing "prevent defense."

"Loser of the week-Marco Rubio. At his largest ever news conference with the Florida press last week, a defensive Rubio dodged question after question about his actions as House speaker, about his employment, about high-speed rail, about stimulus, about the state GOP. Strong fundraising and poll numbers have poised him to be the front-runner for the GOP Senate nomination. He'd better ramp up his game as the spotlight grows."

Margins Matter

2010-01-20T08:10:00.000-05:00

As the country is digesting the special election for a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts, eyes now are fully upon Marco Rubio. After elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and now Massachusetts, conventional wisdom suggests that a path to victory over the "Obama phenomena" has become quite clear: fiscal conservatism (downplay social conservatism), limited government, strong national defense, and anti-health care reform (or at least anti-current health care reform efforts). For Marco Rubio in the Senate race in Florida, and even House candidates in PA like Josh First, this has to be music to their ears.

After the gubernatorial races in VA and NJ, and now the Senate race in MA, Republicans, in particular, are proclaiming a "seismic shift." Yes, it is significant for a Republican to win in the Northeast, let alone in MA - but in no way do these results suggest a seismic shift. What they do suggest is that small shifts - if they occur in the right circumstance can have massive consequences.

The Republicans now have 41 votes in the Senate (assuming they hold onto the few moderates) to put a damper on quite a bit of President Obama's agenda. The Democratic Party still has a massive advantage in the Senate, but it is not filibuster proof. Democrats had 60 votes for a cloture vote, and now with one tiny seat change - much has changed in Washington. But what students of politics should note is that (1) some of the Obama phenomena was a bit overdone, and (2) margins matter. First, just about everything that could fall for the Democrats in 2008 did so. Senate seat, after Senate seat, broke in the Democratic favor. But this was not really a new realignment of the electorate. Instead in places like North Carolina which elected a Democratic Senator and went to President Obama - there was a unique confluence of the lefty-Asheville and academic Raleigh-Durham folks with high African-American turnout. That high African-American turnout appears to be not really sustainable for the Democratic Party without running of African-American candidates. Second, one does not need a huge change to have massive effects: margins matter. The American system of "first past the post" means that if one gets just 48% of the two-party vote, one loses. If one eeks out another 2.1% of the vote, and winds up with 50.1% of the votes - one wins. That's all it takes. And when that 2.1% means the difference between 40 and 41 seats in the Senate - the difference is quite astounding.

So what to take? Well, the Marco Rubios and Josh Firsts of the Republican Party should be happy and take to heart the lessons of these last three elections. But - paraphrasing Mark Halperin, "if the election of November 2010 were held today, I would be quite surprised - as it's scheduled for November 2010." A lot (or just a little) can happen between now and the election - and even a little can matter a lot.

Improbable and Inevitable

2010-01-12T09:19:00.000-05:00

One went from inevitable to improbable, and the other from improbable to inevitable. There is a sense of disbelief spreading among Charlie Crist supporters, much like that spread among Hillary Rodham Clinton supporters, that that upstart – "that guy" – has come out of nowhere. Clinton supporters lamented, and now Crist supporters lament, that their candidate had paid their dues; it was to be their time.

First it was Obama running up an irrelevant win in Iowa, a racially tinged election in South Carolina, some well-timed primaries in the south, in the Midwest, and out west. Now it is Rubio who has been rolling through the party straw polls, hitting those small pass-through counties between Miami and Tallahassee, then Palm Beach, and then Pinellas (Charlie Crist’s home county). Then it was the media, who always revel in the horse-race, that seemed to get behind the Obama insurgency – turning MSNBC into a laughing-stock of all but the most ardent leftists. Now it’s the National Review and even the New York Times Magazine putting the picture of the young, clean-cut, unsullied, Mr. Smith-like newcomer on the front cover.

Maybe Crist will stage a Seabiscuit like comeback. His money advantage is quite a different situation than that faced Clinton. And it was only six months ago when I was comparing staff shakeups in the Rubio campaign to the demise of Katherine Harris. A lot can happen over the several months before the primary – and for that Charlie Crist should be very, very, thankful.

"Assailable" Crist

2010-01-06T10:05:00.000-05:00

Where to begin… Okay, since I last left you all – the Governor has named George LeMieux, his former Chief-of-Staff as a Senatorial placeholder. The Tea Party movement has led an impassioned grassroots effort to pushback against the President Obama led Democrats and RINOs (Republicans in Name Only) alike. The head of the RPOF, Jim Greer (who garnered significant heat for backing Governor Crist against Speaker Rubio in the primary) has resigned. And lo and behold, Marco Rubio has considerably narrowed the polling (and financial) gap between Crist and Rubio in the Republican primary. That was a significant four months.

When I asked Speaker Rubio during a blogger conference call about how he planned on increasing his name identification throughout the state, he replied that he would travel around the state speaking to any and all groups and keep making his case. He’s clearly done that – but he’s also strategically targeted and received endorsements and/or accolades from Jim DeMint, Dick Armey, Club for Growth, Pat Buchanan (not an endorsement, but accolades for sure), and now Representative Paul Ryan. While ordinarily, getting an endorsement from a Republican House member from Wisconsin (my home state) does not send much by way of signals – the Ryan endorsement is huge. Ryan, now in his 6th term – and still is under 40 years of age, has followed a strong course of fiscal discipline and has risen to leadership positions on both the Budget and Ways and Means Committees in the House (both classic prestige committees). Some thought he might be able to defeat John Boehner for the House Leadership position – but he ultimately backed down. He is thought of, inside House Republican circles, as a smart, conscientious, consistent, and non-scary kind of guy (much like the image Speaker Rubio would love to have in the Senate). The Ryan endorsement, on its own, won’t mean a bunch of money (as say the Club for Growth endorsement did) – but it might open the door to a lot of the Republican establishment. Rubio may be moving from grassroots insurgency to going toe-to-toe against the one-time unassailable Governor. Suffice it to say, Governor Crist is "assailable" now.

Mel Martinez Resigns

2009-08-07T15:07:00.000-04:00

How do you know a politician is not telling the truth? His lips are moving - or so the joke goes. Well, just a few months after claiming that he will serve the remainder of his term, Senator Mel Martinez has announced that he is stepping down. As the Constitution vests the power to fill vacancies in Congress to the Executive Authority in the State - this means that leading Senate candidate and Governor Charlie Crist gets to name a Martinez replacement. That could, but likely wont, include the Governor himself. Some potential names being brought forward are former Governor Bob Martinez (could this save money on letterhead?) :-), former Secretary of State Jim Smith, former Senator Connie Mack, former Speaker of the House Alan Bense, and former Congressman Clay Shaw.

It's an interesting calculation for the Governor. Appointing himself would give him the incumbency advantage, but also would subject him to a (legitimate) claim of self-service. This is exceptionally unlikely as the Governor is already the front-runner for both the Republican nomination and the Senate seat in a general election. Be aware of what signals are sent by who is named - does he name someone in his own image (centrist, supportive of the Obama stimulus package)? or does he move slightly to the right to fend off the Rubio challenge. Of course, we do not really know - but one thing is sure - we all ought to be pretty cautious at believing our elected representatives at face value (i.e., Senator Martinez has also claimed that he is not interested in leading FSU and just wants to spend more time in Orlando with his family). Yeah, right.

Uh-oh...

2009-07-25T03:22:00.001-04:00

This has shades of Katherine Harris' failed campaign for the Senate in 2006. Two of Marco Rubio's top campaign officials: his campaign manager and his top fundraising consultant - are off of the payroll. According to Adam Smith's reporting, Marco Rubio claimed that these changes are just part of the "unconventional" campaign against Republican front-runner Charlie Crist. Um, well - no. If this were an all volunteer campaign - maybe. But to go from well-paid to nothing? It's not over, but the fat lady has cleared her throat and is approaching the microphone.

Fundraising and the Cost of a Campaign

2009-07-09T15:17:00.001-04:00

Newly released fundraising numbers show Kendrick Meek (D) and Charlie Crist (R) pulling in 1.2m and 4.3m respectively in the last quarter. Republican challenger Marco Rubio pulled in $340,000.

For some state perspective, consider (according to Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times):

"This was the first fundraising period since Rubio announced his candidacy, though earlier this year he raised about $250,000 when he was still in an exploratory phase. At this point in the 2004 Republican Senate primary, Mel Martinez raised $1.7 million, then-U.S. Rep. Mark Foley raised more than $700,000, Larry Klayman raised $673,000 and Bill McCollum raised $330,000."

And for some national perspective, check out the first quarter numbers compiled by Hotline here. Either way you cut it, Crist's numbers are phenomenal. That kind of money doesn't put an end to the Rubio candidacy, but Rubio will need a large contingent of small donors to run his "insurgency" campaign. Remember as Obama courted this low-dollar voters eager for change, he was able to capitalize upon their investment in him in his path to victory. They came back to give again, and could be counted upon to fill the rallies and engage in social networking on the Obama train. Wow for Charlie; very good for Kendrick, and toot toot for Marco.

Live Blogging Rubio DeMint Conference Call

2009-06-16T13:32:00.000-04:00

Former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio is holding a bloggers conference call today, building off of his endorsement by stalwart conservative Senator Jim DeMint (R-SC).

Said DeMint: "Americans are increasingly [alarmed] by the direction of our country. ... and Americans, not just Republicans, are looking for an alternative. ... It is important that we don't offer the status quo. ... Marco has convinced me that he can win the race in Florida and help set the tone for Republicans across the country."

In response to my question to Rubio about his plan to raise his name identification outside of south Florida. Paraphrased "We started early; we are still 16 months out. ... We plan to travel everywhere, go anywhere, raise enough money with voters. ... This campaign will come from the bottom up, not from the top down."

And in a follow-up: "Typical Republican campaigns are about endorsements, raising money, and going on TV. [But we are not] running a conventional campaign. That's not my kind of campaign. It's about ideas."

From "Political Wire"

2009-06-05T12:16:00.000-04:00

According to a Taegan Goddard post over at Political Wire:

"A new Strategic Vision poll in Florida finds Gov. Charlie Crist (R) crushing Marco Rubio (R) in a Republican Senate primary, 59% to 22%. ... In general election match ups, Crist runs way ahead of Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), 59% to 29%. With Rubio as the GOP Senate nominee, Rubio edges Meek, 31% to 30% with 39% undecided."

Corrine Brown

2009-06-03T15:59:00.000-04:00

Member of Congress Corrine Brown (D-FL3) has formed an exploratory committee regarding a run for the U.S. Senate, setting up a challenge to Kendrick Meek. Brown is just slightly more liberal than Meek (although not as liberal as Meek was when he was first elected). Brown's DW/Nominate scores for the last three congresses: -0.43, -0.42, -0.42; Meek came in at .39 in those same terms. Brown has a slightly incendiary history, having called the Bush policy in Haiti "racist" and telling Congressman Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-FL) that "you all look alike to me." She, however, is not from South Florida - something that she must believe will prove important to voters.

Endorsements

2009-05-27T13:24:00.000-04:00

Jeb Bush Jr., son of former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee have come out to endorse Marco Rubio over Charlie Crist in the Republican U.S. Senate primary. Governor Crist has been endorsed by Senators John Cornyn (TX), Mitch McConnell (KY), John McCain (AZ), Mel Martinez (FL), and now Lindsay Graham (SC).

Endorsements are more about positioning (Crist to the center and Rubio to the right) than anything meaningful, when the candidates are well-known. Dog-catcher races might be more susceptible to the power of an endorsement, but the U.S. Senate is probably a different story.

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

2009-05-25T21:04:00.000-04:00

What could have been (should have been?) a wide open Democratic primary, pitting members of Congress versus state legislators, ideological heterogeneity, and even (a little) geographic diversity (assuming Iorio entered the race) - has largely turned into a one-person show. At this point, it strangely looks like Kendrick Meek is the only serious Democratic candidate running for the Senate. With Alex Sink seeking the governorship, Ron Klein bowing out, and rumors aplently of Dan Gelber jumping ship for an AG run (or at the very least running an anemic fundraising campaign so far) - Kendrick appears to the first and now last man standing. A lot can change - but this is pretty early for all of this to be so seemingly wrapped up. If it is, credit a very strong and disciplined party for not having a costly and divisive primary.

UPDATE: Gelber has officially dropped out of the Senate race.

An early poll

2009-05-20T08:53:00.000-04:00

Marco Rubio will have his work cut out for him - not particularly helped by having the State party apparatus endorsing Charlie Crist - if this early poll means anything. According to a poll of 300 Republican voters, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Sachs firm, showed Rubio with only 18 percent of the vote, with Governor Crist at more than 50 percent of the vote (undecideds at 29 percent, and the margin of error being +-6).

While certainly Rubio would prefer to have done better, most political scientists agree that early polls are predictive of very little. And some of you might remember some also ran named Obama badly trailing Hilary Rodham Clinton in the early polls. What are early polls good for? Not quite "absolutely nothing." Politicians can use these early polls as part of their fundraising mechanism, which can in turn work on name ID, which can in turn improve future polls - which can be quite predictive of winners. But there is a lot of "noise" involved in this line of causation - making these early polls not particularly important.

Blastoff

2009-05-12T10:02:00.002-04:00

Ladies and gentlemen - we have blastoff. The Crist candidacy is official.

“Over the last several months I have spoken with many Floridians about the challenges that we face together and the issues affecting our daily lives. Our country is facing the most profound public policy questions in our lifetime – questions relating to the economy, taxes, healthcare, the environment and national security. The answers to these questions will have a lasting impact on the country we love and the nation we will leave to our children and grandchildren. As I have previously said, my decision whether to seek the office of U.S. Senator or re-election as Governor would not be made until after the important work of the Legislature was completed at which time I could reflect on how to best serve the people of this great state. Here in Florida, we’ve shown that when we put people first and work together much can be accomplished, and I intend to bring that same approach to Washington. That is why, after thoughtful consideration with my wife Carole, I have decided to run for the U.S. Senate. As Governor, each day I will continue to focus on fighting for all Floridians. And if I am given the honor of serving as their Senator, I will take that fight for the people of this state I love so dearly to the halls of Congress. Thank you and God bless the great state of Florida and the United States of America.”

And in reply, former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio offered: "I welcome Charlie Crist to the 2010 Republican primary for the United States Senate. Our primary will offer Republicans a front row seat to a debate about the future of the Republican Party here in Florida and across the nation. My campaign will offer GOP voters a clear alternative to the direction some want to take our party. Let the debate begin."

The NRSC (National Republican Senatorial Committee) has come out endorsing Charlie Crist in the Republican primary (not so surprising since the Chair of the NRSC John Cornyn (R-TX) had been recruiting Charlie), and Nate Silver of 538.com suggests that Democrats might want to get behind a Crist candidacy.

T-1

2009-05-11T15:55:00.000-04:00

And an opening salvo from the Rubio camp, notable only in that Crist has yet to announce.

3, 2, 1...

2009-05-10T21:21:00.000-04:00

The countdown to Governor Crist's announcement of his intention to run for the Senate seat now occupied by Senator Mel Martinez is at T-2. According to both his former Chief of Staff and the head of the Republican Party, Tuesday, in Tallahassee, Governor Crist will announce his plans.

Charlie Crist ran for the U.S. Senate once before - back in 1998, as a Republican in a Democratic-Presidential midterm election - and was crushed by (incumbent) Bob Graham 62-38. Crist won just four counties, and barely cracked 25% of the vote in three Democratic strongholds of Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade. But Crist's political skills have come a long way since then. For a really interesting read, check out Steve Bosquet's 2006 piece here, and some speculation about how the Governor might do in the 2010 race here.

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist

2009-05-07T08:53:00.000-04:00

Conventional wisdom holds that the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist will win the U.S. Senate race in a walk. Despite the economic turmoil of the State, Governor Crist still enjoys high state-wide polling. While to many this seems unassailable, one method for beating Charlie at this game is not to let him play. To win the Senate seat, he needs to be the nominee of his own party - and that ladies and gentlemen is where the Governor could be vulnerable. Given the Governor's vocal and visible support for President Obama's stimulous package, there may be an exploitable cleavage to the right. In fact, in the latest polling, Governor Crist's negatives were higher among Republicans than among Democrats or Independents. Enter Marco Rubio, former Speaker of the Florida House, who, in addition to being a Jeb Bush protege who can draw upon support from Jeb's network, amassed a very conservative voting record in the Florida legislature. And Rubio has now also made a nice investment among the Tea Party crowd that could provide dividends in a Republican primary. His statewide name identification is still low, but that's what his campaign would have to be about: the branding of Marco Rubio. Expect lots of exposure from Speaker Rubio regarding (1) education (Jeb's specialty and 33 of the first 100 ideas from Rubio's book: "100 Innovative Ideas For Florida's Future: A Plan of Action"), (2) the economy (especially taxes, and spending), and (3) Cuba policy.

The Dance

2009-04-17T07:13:00.000-04:00

Throughout this preliminary period of the 2010 election season, a number of candidates have danced about whether to enter the race. This "warm-up" period is quite common. Consider the "testing the waters" presidential campaigns waged by Senator Russ Feingold in 2006 and 2007. Candidates might be serious about entering the race, but don't forget that at heart politicians are, well, political. This means that they may be pushed by particular interests to run - or might simply be interested in raising their profile either for a separate purpose or simply because that is what politicians do. But once in a while, what looks like simply dipping a toe in the river is just the first step to taking the plunge. Former Speaker of the House Marco Rubio is now backing away from his earlier thoughts about vacating the field for Governor Crist. Many Republicans have been feeling as of late that Governor Crist has been vacating the Repubican field - and a primary challenge might be just the antidote to either (1) beat Charlie head-to-head, or (2) move the Governor back to the right to govern.

Is Sununu Next?

2009-04-10T09:24:00.000-04:00

Former New Hampshire Senator, and now Florida resident, Bob Smith has officially announced that he is entering the Republican race to replace Senator Martinez. Smith's career as a Senator was typically on the fringe; not only did he once leave the Republican Party to seek the Presidency for the U.S. Taxpayers Party - he subsequently endorsed Democrtic Senator Kerry in the 2004 presidential race. I believe that qualifies him as an atypical political official.

No Mack

2009-04-06T11:46:00.000-04:00

Connie Mack has announced, via a letter to Charlie Crist, that he will not seek the U.S. Senate seat held by Senator Martinez. Further, Mack's letter to Crist proclaimed: "I will be your strongest supporter and champion - regardless of whether you seek re-election or election to the Senate." The liklihood of a Crist run seems to be increasing with time. The state legislative session ends in the next few weeks, and Crist is widely expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans in May.

Waiting on Charlie

2009-03-18T12:15:00.000-04:00

While most Republicans will wait for Governor Crist to announce his plans on whether to enter the Senate race in May, one Republican has entered the fray. Dr. Marion Thorpe, who took on (and lost against) Congressman Alcee Hastings for a House run in 2008, has announced his candidacy. Though Thorpe lacks elected office experience (see below for a discussion of amateurs in Congress), Thorpe's bio has plenty of nuggets for the insider politics hopeful. He has been the chief medical officer for Florida's Agency for Health Care Administration and has held leadership positions with city and statewide political committees. His policy platform looks solidly conservative on abortion, the economy, and taxes, and he tacks slightly more moderate position on immigration. It's a plausible candidacy; but like most everyone else - we are still all waiting on Charlie.

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Unknowns

2009-03-02T08:35:00.000-05:00

As the primary races begin to shape up, we have had several announcements of who is in, here, here, here, and here, and of course, several announcements of who is out here, here and here. Two of the Known Unknowns appear to be at least mildly positioning themselves to be ready for a Senate run. The "wait and see" approach of Governor Crist has effectively frozen the Republican field for the lesser known names, but we've also seen in recent weeks MSNBC Morning Joe host and former Congressman Joe Scarborough increasing both his Florida bona fides and taking on a sharper partisan tack (largely on his radio show and on his appearance on Meet the Press this past weekend; his daily Morning Joe show continues to be, in my opinion, the single best unbiased and balanced show among all of political television). These are both of our top Known Unknowns - will they or won't they? And maybe, just maybe - would Joe be the one person in Florida who would run in a Republican primary against Charlie?

But in true Rumsfeldian fashion, there are also the Unknown Unknowns - what kinds of things could happen down the road to shake this up even more? Sexual scandals, ethics charges, a political newcomer, and a changing (maybe?) economy are the most likely culprits.

Iorio Pros and Cons

2009-02-18T07:58:00.000-05:00

The St. Pete Times' Political Editor has the pros and cons of Tampa Bay Mayor Pam Iorio (is that pronounced "Yore-e-o" or "Eyeore-e-o"?) entering the Democratic primary for the Senate race. The assets for her would be capitalizing on the diffusion of support for several South Florida politicians, being the only woman in the race, and being the only candidate from the I-4 corridor. Her lack of demonstrated support for fellow party members and the mismatch between the executive skill set possessed and the legislative skill set needed may hinder her candidacy.

If the race turns on low information voters, Iorio's pros can go a long way. Yet primary voters tend to be better informed and more extreme than general election voters. As the Mayor of a large city, she likely enjoys high name ID in the Tampa region and a recent poll is at least mildly suggestive that her name has filtered beyond the city limits.

Actors, Astronauts, Athletes and Amateurs in Congress

2009-02-17T22:33:00.001-05:00

While it is true that the Constitutional qualifications to hold congressional office are quite minimal, there are tried and true paths to the U.S. Capitol. House Members typically have been state legislators, and U.S. Senators have either been a House Member or fabulously wealthy, or both. These individuals not only have experience campaigning, but have already established a network of money and professional staff, and most importantly name identification. Yet despite this tried and true method of ascending to the Hill, there are plenty of people who made their way to Washington with little to no political experience. Consider the most recently defeated House Member from Florida’s 16th District. Congressman Tim Mahoney had never held elective office prior to becoming a Member of Congress. So how did he win? Quite simply, he was in the right place at the right time. Most seasoned Democrats had stayed away from the 2006 race against then-incumbent Mark Foley, largely because he seemed unbeatable. According to noted Congressional scholar (and my former professor) David Canon, that’s sort of a recipe for a political amateur to enter a race; when Foley was undone because of a salacious scandal involving young House Pages – there was Tim Mahoney ready to pick up the pieces and win. And yet despite his once amateur status, he was thought by many to be on his way to a decent House career (until, of course, he was derailed by his own sex scandal).

So beyond the top-two Democrats to enter the Senate race so far, in the last couple of weeks a few other names have popped into the picture. Tonight, for example, North Miami Mayor (population 60,000) Kevin Burns announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate race. With two other Miami-Dade pols in the race (and one more South Florida politician likely to enter), including an African American candidate (North Miami has a large Haitian population) in the race, there does not appear to be a natural constituency for Burns. But as it turns out, Burns is also openly-gay, and he and his long term partner have adopted a child (something that is not allowed under Florida law, but is under Vermont law where the adoption took place). It’s conceivable that this sort of identity politics may attract some voters (and probably lose some others too), but it’s unlikely that the traditional indicia of a winning candidate would be swamped by sexual orientation. While there are no openly gay members in the Senate, there are certainly openly gay members in the House – and plenty of voters who largely suspect, but do not really care, that their member may be gay. It just does not seem to be much of a factor, when compared with the much more meaningful issues surrounding ideology compatibility, positions on key issues or valence points, and messaging.

Burns is not exactly a pure amateur. It's true that Burns is finishing up his second term as a mayor; but that's fairly thin political experience for a 10 media market state. As more candidates enter the race, the odds that the GLBT constituency pushes his candidacy forward increases - but the odds that it will be Burns who will be in the right place at the right time decreases.

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

2009-02-01T10:00:00.001-05:00

Mapping the expressed ideology of the Senate candidates is interesting on its own - but we can also use this information to start thinking about the upcoming race. One of the easiest concepts to grasp is the concept of the median voter theorem. Now about 60 years old, the median voter theorem suggests that when preferences are single peaked (effectively analyzing one's choices along a single dimension), the candidate who appeals to the middle voter will win an election. This is one of the reasons why the two-major parties tend to move toward the center in a general election, as both parties are focused on the median voter. This also gives rise to what political scientists call the primary paradox (those things one does to win a primary often lead to negative outcomes in the general election); during a primary and a general election, there are two different median voters to consider.

What this means is that in the general election, the candidate closest to Florida's median voter will likely win the Senate seat. So what is the ideology of Florida's median voter? Well one idea would be to simply look at partisan identification: in Florida, there are 4.7 million Democrats, almost 4.1 million Republicans, and about 2.4 "other" voters. Some of those "others" are to the likely to the left of most Democrats (e.g., the Greens and the Socialists), some are likely to the right of most Republicans (e.g., the Objectivists and the Constitutionists), but the vast majority of those "others" are not registered with a party (or registered with the Independent Party of Florida). Those individuals could be distributed randomly, or exactly in the ideological center. This method of adducing Florida's median voter is not necessarily fruitful.

Another method of determining Florida's median voter would be to look at the ideology of Florida's elected officials. Using DW-NOMINATE scores, this would make Vern Buchanan's .447 as the 13th out of the 25 House of Representative members. Adding in the two Senators, this would make Senator Mel Martinez's .412 as the exact center of the Florida delegation. This does not mean that the median Florida voter would be comfortably placed in the same ideological space as Martinez - but does mean that Martinez's ideological estimate is likely closer to the median Florida voter than was Martinez's opponent in 2004 (Betty Castor). Castor's ideological score is not easily discernible, as she has not served in a legislative position (Fl State Senate) since 1986. I have been unable to find interest group scores for her from that time period. The most promising option is to look at the median Republican House member and the median Democratic House member - and finding the midpoint. That would mean that Florida's median voter would be about .042. That would be the "most liberal" interpretation of the median voter (the "true" median could be closer to the Republican median). One could also consider the 2006 Bill Nelson versus Katherine Harris race - where Nelson (.-320) defeated Harris (.561) quite easily. That would give a conservative boundary for the median voter at .121.

If we look at the varying pairs of Democratic and Republican candidates, we can adduce which candidates would be closer to that voter.

Assuming the "liberal" interpretation, this means that among the following six candidates for office: Gelber, Meek, and Klein, and then Buchanan, Mack, and Rubio, we would examine the pairs and figure out quickly which candidates would be favored in a head-to-head match.

Gelber would be closer to the median voter than Mack or Rubio.
Meek would be closer to the median voter than Mack or Rubio.
Klein would be closer to the median voter than Buchanan, Mack, or Rubio.
Buchanan would be closer to the median voter than Meek or Gelber.

Alternatively if we assume the "conservative" interpretation, this means the following winning combinations:

Gelber would be closer to the median voter than Rubio.
Meek would be closer to the median voter than Mack or Rubio.
Klein would be closer to the median voter than Mack, or Rubio.
Buchanan would be closer to the median voter than Klein, Meek, or Gelber.
Mack would be closer to the median voter than Gelber.

All of this neglects campaign effects and exogenous shocks to the system (scandals) - to the extent that those notions are not already factored into the original numbers. Now whether each party's voters are strategic in terms of maximizing their party's chances for winning (right now Klein and Buchanan), remains to be seen.

Good for South Florida!

2009-01-28T18:17:00.001-05:00

Looks like Attorney General Bill McCollum and Congressman Allen Boyd have both decided against running for the Senate. That leaves all three major candidates for the Democratic nomination from South Florida, and also knocks off a Republican non-south Floridian. Though there some indications that there could be a Democratic woman from central Florida considering a run.

This could also mean that the Republican field is being cleared for Charlie Crist. Although I think this to be unlikely, the logic goes something like: get out of Florida with still high numbers (the looming budget mess could act like an albatross on the Governor's high approval ratings), position himself for a 2016 White House run (staying as governor runs his term until 2014, leaving him paying his own dime for trips to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada), and DC might be a more attractive town for a newly married man than Tallahassee.

Senate Candidate Ideology Estimates

2009-01-26T10:04:00.001-05:00

Political scientists and interest groups often use scaling mechanisms to describe legislators and other political actors. While we know that the (nominal) measures of partisan identification give us some information about ideology (knowing that an individual is a Republican versus a Democrat), we are also used to more ordinal measures of ideology. Thus we have "Blue-Dog Democrats" or "Northeastern Republicans," which convey a sense of ideology in a comparative sense; Blue-dog Democrats are more conservative than a standard Democrat and Northeastern Republicans are more liberal than a standard Republican. But we can also attempt to come up with interval measures of ideology which not only gives the relative position of candidate ideology (e.g., "he is more than conservative than she") but also a sense of the distance between candidates. While we know from Howard Dean's famous talking point that he declared himself part of the "Democratic-Wing of the Democratic Party," we can't really tell from this statement how much more liberal he was than John Kerry. Is a conservative Democrat more conservative than a liberal Republican?

Interest groups often come up with "Legislator Scorecards" or rankings. These are typically topical reviews of legislator positions of issues of concern to each group: the National Association of Wheat Growers looks at the positions of Members of Congress on bills related to wheat; Americans for Tax Reform examine votes of Members of Congress on tax issues; and the National Rifle Association determines how much support Members of Congress give to laws related to guns. There are also some broader measures of ideology used by interest groups, such as Americans for Democratic Action which computes ADA scores from a wider measure of votes. Within political science, the most commonly used scores are called DW-NOMINATE scores, which scale political actors based on all roll-call votes. While there are some debates within political science about the propriety of using roll call votes to determine ideology, there is a general consensus that these scores certainly provide some leverage on the issue. They are clearly imperfect, but certainly provide more information than ordinal measures of ideology. DW-NOMINATE scores range from -1 to 1, with one signifying a strong conservative, 0 a moderate, and -1 a strong liberal.

The figure above displays DW-NOMINATE scores for the likely candidates for the Senate race in Florida. I also placed in the chart scores for current Senators Nelson and Martinez, and the median U.S. member from Florida from each party. A few caveats, however, are necessary. There are three plausible candidates below who are not in, and have not been in Congress (Gelber, Rubio, and Hasner). I, however, was able to go back and look at interest group scores from the Associated Builders and Contractor's, Florida Chamber of Commerce, Associated Industries of Florida, the Christian Coalition of Florida, Florida League of Conservation Voters, and National Rifle Association to begin to place these individuals along-side the others. While I did not compute formal bridge measures as political scientists might really want, for the sake of comparison I did examine the scores for both Ron Klein and Connie Mack when they served in the state legislature. I may be able to refine these scores in the future - but these are decent estimates at this point in time. Additionally McCollum has not been in Congress since 2001. I examined McCollum's scores from each of his terms, and there was very little variation. While the votes in Congress can vary from year to year in terms of ideology, thus making year to year comparisons somewhat difficult - for our purposes here to understand these candidates, this does not pose much of threat to that task.

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

2009-01-25T22:02:00.001-05:00

Early polls are not particularly predictive of eventual winners. So early polls that show Kendrick Meek topping the Democratic field of Senate candidates at a ridiculously low 13% and Attorney General Bill McCollum at just 22% should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these polls can certainly assist candidates with strategy (positioning or name ID?), and fundraising. Fundraising and likelihood of winning are effectively a "positive feedback loop" without a direct causal mechanism. That is to say that the more one raises money, the easier it is to get elected. The more likely one is to win an election, the easier it is to raise funds. Who wants to give money to a losing candidate? Yet there are some interesting phenomena at work. When incumbents raise a lot of money, it can often be a sign of trouble.

The early scuttle on fundraising within the Senate race mostly comes from the Democratic side of things. Congressman Ron Klein has about $1.7 million in campaign funds that can be used in the Senate race; Congressman Allen Boyd has $1.2 million; and now word comes that President Clinton is coming to Miami for a fundraiser for Congressman Kendrick Meek on Friday, January 30. The race could cost as much as $30 million; that is about $1.5 million per month or $50,000 a day.

UPDATE: Meek's haul from the Clinton event: 300K.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated to and raised funds for Congressman Klein in his 2006 and 2008 U.S. House races.

Mack on Hold?

2009-01-24T03:50:00.000-05:00

Connie Mack IV (R), a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, appears to be hedging on his Senate run - at least outwardly proclaiming that he would defer to a Charlie Crist run for the Senate. Mack is an attractive candidate for the Senate for many reasons: solid conservative credentials with a few well-known moderate stances, political experience, high name ID (largely owed to his family), and decent fundraising ability. He is dutifully waiting on the leader of the party in the State, and did the same for Jeb. While this many not strike the general public as the strongest qualities of a leader - this kind of deference goes a long way toward appeasing the party faithful (generally a prerequisite for a primary run).

Gelber inching closer

2009-01-22T10:13:00.000-05:00

Florida Senator and Former House Minority Leader Dan Gelber is getting closer to an official announcement of his candidacy for running for the U.S. Senate. It's interesting to compare Gelber and Ron Klein who share a natural South Florida Jewish Democratic constituency, but fairly limited name recognition through-out the state. Klein has proven to be a better fund-raiser and is less caustic than Gelber, and is a bit more conservative. But Gelber can have his cake and eat it too; Florida has a "Resign to Run" law that effectively bars one from holding office and running for another office. The Florida legislature, however, created an exception that would exempt one who holds state office and runs for federal office (largely thought to have been for Governor Crist, opening a pathway to the Vice Presidency). For all of the other Democratic contenders, including Klein, they will have to give up their current federal seats when running for the Senate; Gelber can have a nice-fall back job should he fail to win the U.S. Senate seat.

Rumors, rumors, rumors

2009-01-20T09:37:00.000-05:00

On the Democratic side of things, Meek is in, Sink is out. Gelber, Klein, and Boyd are likely entries. For the Republicans, Bush is out, McCollum, Rubio, Mack, and Buchanan are likely contenders; prodigious fundraiser Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner is also a possibility.

Full disclosure - my wife has donated money to Representative Hasner for a state house race.

Governor to Senator?

2009-01-19T09:58:00.000-05:00

Despite pleas from Senator Cornyn (R-TX), head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman (basically the Senator in charge of all of the 2010 races) for Charlie Crist to enter the fray, money should not be put on this guy to run. He avoids the trappings of term-limits, but the transition from Executive to Legislator is not always so easy. In fact, the Republicans may be losing two Senators this cycle who will return home to run for Governor (Brownback-KS and Hutchison-TX). These jobs call for very different skill sets and desire for the klieg lights. Governor Crist's response to how much interest he has in the seat? "Not much."

First in the water

2009-01-19T09:20:00.000-05:00

While names have been dropping off the radar screen (Jeb Bush, Alex Sink, Joe Scarborough), the first serious candidate (one with significant electoral experience) has entered the race. House Member Kendrick Meek (D) has announced his candidacy in the Democratic primary run for the Martinez seat. Meek represents Florida's 17th District in Congress, a district that stretches from North Miami to Hollywood, just inland off the coast. Meek, despite some low name ID statewide could be a formidable candidate. He hails from a well connected political family (Meek's mother Carrie had been the previous office-holder from the same district), he spent eight years in the Florida legislature (both House and Senate), and serves on the Ways and Means Committee in the U.S. House (one of the so-called "prestige" committees). Meek could also bring together the Democratic Party in Florida. He was an early backer of Senator Clinton in the Presidential primary (certainly made notable largely because Meek is African-American and hails from a predominantly black district), but has now hired Steve Hildebrand - Obama's deputy campaign manager. And massive money raiser (and spender) Chris Korge appears to be an early backer as well.

Welcome

2009-01-16T09:10:00.001-05:00

Welcome to what may be the definitive space for information related to the 2010 U.S. Senate race in Florida, mixing a bit of attention to the news with a dash of political science. It is required reading for my students at Florida Atlantic University, and recommended to all. With Senator Mel Martinez (R) announcing that he will not run for re-election, the race became wide-open. There are two cross-cutting phenomena at work here. First, typically when an incumbent announces that he or she will not run for re-election, this is a sign of expected electoral trouble for the incumbent party (here the Republicans). Second, midterm elections usually break against the party in power in the White House (here the Democrats). So here we now have a Senate race with no clear front-runner (incumbents generally win Senate about three out of every four races entered), the typical indicators of which party may win are at odds with one another, and the state is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans in terms of partisan registration and voting behavior. Welcome to the race; it should be quite the ride.

Race for the U.S. Senate, Florida 2010

A Reversal of Fortunes

From "Political Wire"

Where will Charlie go?

Ladies and Gentlemen, Senator Rubio

Ballot Design

The Election Returns

Incumbency and the Three Way Race

Good news, bad news, and the Solomonic compromise

Dems for Crist and the Killing Fields

Is Meek not handsome enough?

One cleared primary, one contested primary

Populism and a Broadside Attack on Parties

Countdown 2-1...

Charlie's Choice

Image problem resolved?

Charlie in a Three-Way?

And the winner is...

The Latest Poll, in Perspective

Going Negative

How Conservative is Marco Rubio?

To Debate or Not to Debate

First in for NASCAR... Kendrick Meek

Senate candidate Meek courts NASCAR fans> Posted by Anthony Man on February 8, 2010 05:10 PM

Understanding Polls

Crist has an image problem

Free Fallin'

What to do now

Margins Matter

Improbable and Inevitable

"Assailable" Crist

Mel Martinez Resigns

Uh-oh...

Fundraising and the Cost of a Campaign

Live Blogging Rubio DeMint Conference Call

From "Political Wire"

Corrine Brown

Endorsements

The Incredible Shrinking Democratic Primary

An early poll

Blastoff

T-1

3, 2, 1...

The Conservative Challenge to Charlie Crist

The Dance

Is Sununu Next?

No Mack

Waiting on Charlie

The Known Unknowns and the Unknown Unknowns

Iorio Pros and Cons

Actors, Astronauts, Athletes and Amateurs in Congress

Ideology and the Median Voter Theorem

Good for South Florida!

Senate Candidate Ideology Estimates

Polls and Money, Money and Polls

Mack on Hold?

Gelber inching closer

Rumors, rumors, rumors

Governor to Senator?

First in the water

Welcome

Senate candidate Meek courts NASCAR fans

> Posted by Anthony Man on February 8, 2010 05:10 PM